IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jnljam/v2021y2021i1n5538300.html

Modelling the Impacts of Early Intervention on Desert Locust Outbreak Prevention

Author

Listed:
  • Dejen Ketema Mamo
  • Dejene Shewakena Bedane

Abstract

To preserve crop production losses, monitoring of desert locust attacks is a significant feature of agriculture. In this paper, a mathematical model was formulated and analyzed to protect crops against desert locust attack via early intervention tactics. We consider a triple intervention approach, namely, proaction, reaction, and outbreak prevention. The model integrates a stage‐structured locust population, logistics‐based crop biomass, and blended early intervention via pesticide spray. We assume that the amount of pesticide spray is proportional to the density of the locust population in the infested area. Conventional short residual pesticides within ultralow volume formulation and equipment control operations are considered. The trivial and locust‐free equilibrium of the model is unstable, whereas the interior equilibrium is asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical results of the model. In the absence of intervention measures, desert locust losses are approximately 71% of expected crop production. The model projection shows that effective proactive early intervention on hopper stage locust contained locust infestation and subdued public health and environmental hazards. Relevant and up‐to‐date combined early interventions control desert locust aggression and crop production losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Dejen Ketema Mamo & Dejene Shewakena Bedane, 2021. "Modelling the Impacts of Early Intervention on Desert Locust Outbreak Prevention," Journal of Applied Mathematics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2021(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jnljam:v:2021:y:2021:i:1:n:5538300
    DOI: 10.1155/2021/5538300
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5538300
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1155/2021/5538300?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abubakr A. M. Salih & Marta Baraibar & Kenneth Kemucie Mwangi & Guleid Artan, 2020. "Climate change and locust outbreak in East Africa," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(7), pages 584-585, July.
    2. Joseph Páez Chávez & Dirk Jungmann & Stefan Siegmund, 2017. "Modeling and Analysis of Integrated Pest Control Strategies via Impulsive Differential Equations," International Journal of Differential Equations, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-18, December.
    3. Abraha, Teklebirhan & Al Basir, Fahad & Obsu, Legesse Lemecha & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2021. "Pest control using farming awareness: Impact of time delays and optimal use of biopesticides," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Abubakr A. M. Salih & Marta Baraibar & Kenneth Kemucie Mwangi & Guleid Artan, 2020. "Author Correction: Climate change and locust outbreak in East Africa," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 971-971, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mamo, Dejen K. & Kinyanjui, Mathew N. & Siewe, Nourridine, 2026. "Modeling desert locust population dynamics: A climate driven approach using machine learning," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 511(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Till Wenzel & Cees van Westen & Mariya Sunil & Núria Pantaleoni Reluy & Philipp Marr & Thomas Glade & Rainer Bell, 2026. "Towards a practical multi-hazard interrelation classification: implications for assessing their impacts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 122(2), pages 1-37, January.
    2. Bai Yu & Guojun He & Pak Hung Lam & Yanjun Li, 2026. "Sophie and the locust curse: Effects of locust plague on human capital accumulation," TUPD Discussion Papers 80, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    3. Aschauer, Nadine & Parnell, Stephen, 2025. "Analysis of mathematical modelling approaches to capture human behaviour dynamics in agricultural pest and disease systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Landmann, Tobias & Agboka, Komi M. & Klein, Igor & Abdel-Rahman, Elfatih M. & Kimathi, Emily & Mudereri, Bester T. & Malenge, Benard & Mohamed, Mahgoub M. & Tonnang, Henri E.Z., 2023. "Towards early response to desert locust swarming in eastern Africa by estimating timing of hatching," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 484(C).
    5. Takahiro Nakashima & Shoko Ishikawa, 2022. "Exploring Farmers’ Expectation toward Farm-Gate Price of Rice in Japan by Positive Mathematical Programming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Mohammad Al-Saidi & Suhair A. Gayoum Saad & Nadir Ahmed Elagib, 2023. "From scenario to mounting risks: COVID-19’s perils for development and supply security in the Sahel," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6295-6318, July.
    7. Hongmei Li & Mariam A. T. J. Kadzamira & Adewale Ogunmodede & Elizabeth Finch & Jingquan Zhu & Dannie Romney & Belinda Luke, 2023. "Lessons Learned and Challenges of Biopesticide Usage for Locust Management—The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-10, April.
    8. Elizabeth Presler-Marshall & Workneh Yadete & Nicola A. Jones & Yitagesu Gebreyehu, 2022. "Making the “Unthinkable” Thinkable: Fostering Sustainable Development for Youth in Ethiopia’s Lowlands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, April.
    9. Mamo, Dejen K. & Kinyanjui, Mathew N. & Siewe, Nourridine, 2026. "Modeling desert locust population dynamics: A climate driven approach using machine learning," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 511(C).
    10. Waidi Gbenro Adebayo, 2025. "Resilience in the face of ecological challenges: Strategies for integrating environmental considerations into social policy planning in Africa," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 203-220, February.
    11. Bernard Barasa & Cosmas Walyaula Watsusi & Paul Makoba Gudoyi & Noah Lutaaya & Loy Turyabanawe Gumisiriza & John Paul Magaya, 2023. "Desert Locust Invasion in Uganda: Effects on Household Food Consumption and Effective Control Interventions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-15, October.
    12. Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong & Emmanuel Nshakira-Rukundo & Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan, 2023. "COVID-19 and food insecurity in Africa: A review of the emerging empirical evidence," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 50(3), pages 853-878.
    13. Anti Partey, Peter & Annim, Samuel K. & Yidana, Mumuni Baba & Sebu, Joshua, 2024. "Estimating the extent of educational resource deprivation among basic schools and its effect on quality education in Ghana," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Fuyu Cai & Yuting Ding, 2023. "Hopf Bifurcation Analysis of a Class of Saperda populnea Infectious Disease Model with Delay," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-14, October.
    15. Alaa A. Alsaqer & Azhar Iqbal Kashif Butt & Muneerah Al Nuwairan, 2024. "Investigating the Dynamics of Bayoud Disease in Date Palm Trees and Optimal Control Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-25, May.
    16. Hemant G. Tripathi & Harriet E. Smith & Steven M. Sait & Susannah M. Sallu & Stephen Whitfield & Astrid Jankielsohn & William E. Kunin & Ndumiso Mazibuko & Bonani Nyhodo, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Diverse Farm Systems in Tanzania and South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    17. Bre, Facundo & Lamberts, Roberto & Flores-Larsen, Silvana & Koenders, Eduardus A.B., 2023. "Multi-objective optimization of latent energy storage in buildings by using phase change materials with different melting temperatures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    18. Abdulla Al Kafy & Saleh Alsulamy & Abdulaziz M. Alsaleh, 2026. "Escalating heat hazard risk in arid urban environments: a two-decade assessment of thermal stress patterns and health risks using UTCI and WBGT indices in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 122(4), pages 1-26, February.
    19. Zevika, Mona & Utami, Sri & Tjahjono, Budi & Sucahyono, M. Pangky & Gafur, Abdul & Guswenrivo, Ikhsan & Triska, Anita & Himmi, S. Khoirul, 2024. "Understanding population dynamics and management strategies for a newly emerging pest Carea sp. in Eucalyptus plantations in Indonesia through a mathematical model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    20. Chari Felix & Ngcamu Bethuel Sibongiseni, 2022. "Climate change and its impact on urban agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: A literature review," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 10(3), pages 22-32, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jnljam:v:2021:y:2021:i:1:n:5538300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/4185 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.