IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v38y2018i8p841-864.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of settlement rules on the incentive to Bang the Close

Author

Listed:
  • Esen Onur
  • David Reiffen

Abstract

Closing prices on financial exchanges are often used as reference prices in other contracts. As such, the robustness of the process determining closing prices is an important feature of exchanges. This paper examines whether the 2012 change in the Chicago Board of Trade's (CBT) closing price procedure made reference prices more robust, especially regarding potential manipulation. We propose a theoretical model exploring incentives to manipulate reference prices under two alternative closing price regimes. We test several predictions of the model using a proprietary data set comprised of individual transactions in CBT corn futures, and find empirical support for these predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Esen Onur & David Reiffen, 2018. "The effect of settlement rules on the incentive to Bang the Close," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(8), pages 841-864, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:38:y:2018:i:8:p:841-864
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21915
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.21915
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.21915?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1992. "Futures Manipulation with "Cash Settlement."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1485-1502, September.
    3. Xiaoyan Ni, Sophie & Pearson, Neil D. & Poteshman, Allen M., 2005. "Stock price clustering on option expiration dates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-87, October.
    4. Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1993. "Manipulation of the Commodity Futures Market Delivery Process," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 335-369, July.
    5. Oliver Hart, 2009. "Hold-up, Asset Ownership, and Reference Points," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(1), pages 267-300.
    6. Hillion, Pierre & Suominen, Matti, 2004. "The manipulation of closing prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 351-375, October.
    7. Crocker, Keith J & Masten, Scott E, 1991. "Pretia ex Machina? Prices and Process in Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 69-99, April.
    8. Atanasov, Vladimir & Davies, Ryan J. & Merrick, John J., 2015. "Financial intermediaries in the midst of market manipulation: Did they protect the fool or help the knave?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 210-234.
    9. James Eaves & Jeffrey Williams, 2010. "Are Intraday Volume and Volatility U-Shaped After Accounting for Public Information?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 212-227.
    10. Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1992. "Trading Halts and Market Activity: An Analysis of Volume at the Open and the Close," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1765-1784, December.
    11. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Putnins, Talis J., 2011. "Measuring closing price manipulation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 135-158, April.
    12. Andriy Shkilko & Bonnie Van Ness & Robert Van Ness, 2012. "Short Selling and Intraday Price Pressures," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 345-370, June.
    13. repec:hrv:faseco:34728601 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Carole Comerton-Forde & Tālis J. Putniņš, 2014. "Stock Price Manipulation: Prevalence and Determinants," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 23-66.
    15. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 269-283, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cumming, Douglas & Dannhauser, Robert & Johan, Sofia, 2015. "Financial market misconduct and agency conflicts: A synthesis and future directions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 150-168.
    2. Chan, Shu Hui & Huang, Yu Chuan & Lin, Sheng-Min, 2020. "Market transparency and closing price behavior on month-end days: Evidence from Taiwan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Robert Jarrow & Scott Fung & Shih-Chuan Tsai, 2018. "An empirical investigation of large trader market manipulation in derivatives markets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 331-374, October.
    4. Atanasov, Vladimir & Davies, Ryan J. & Merrick, John J., 2015. "Financial intermediaries in the midst of market manipulation: Did they protect the fool or help the knave?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 210-234.
    5. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.
    6. Sofia Johan, 2008. "Global Market Surveillance," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 454-506.
    7. Christos Alexakis & Vasileios Pappas & Emmanouil Skarmeas, 2021. "Market abuse under different close price determination mechanisms: A European case," Post-Print hal-03182927, HAL.
    8. Carole Comerton-Forde & Tālis J. Putniņš, 2014. "Stock Price Manipulation: Prevalence and Determinants," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 23-66.
    9. Foley, Sean & Kwan, Amy & Low, Siyuan Adrian & Svec, Jiri, 2018. "The rise before the close: Underwriter trading around SEOs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 221-235.
    10. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "Exchange trading rules, surveillance and suspected insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 311-330.
    11. Carole Comerton-Forde & Tālis Putniņš, 2011. "Pricing accuracy, liquidity and trader behavior with closing price manipulation," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 14(1), pages 110-131, March.
    12. Marija Corluka & Edwin O. Fischer, 2014. "Forensic Finance: Market Abuse and Price Manipulation in Security Markets on the Trail," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(2), pages 047-067, December.
    13. Adrian C. H. Lei, 2015. "Price and Volume Effects of Exchange‐Traded Barrier Options: Evidence from Callable Bull/Bear Contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(11), pages 1042-1066, November.
    14. Cumming, Douglas & Johan, Sofia & Li, Dan, 2011. "Exchange trading rules and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 651-671, March.
    15. Tsung-Yu Hsieh, 2015. "Information disclosure and price manipulation during the pre-closing session: evidence from an order-driven market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(43), pages 4670-4684, September.
    16. Dan Gabriel ANGHEL & Elena Valentina ŢILICĂ & Victor DRAGOTĂ, 2020. "Intraday Patterns in Returns on the Romanian and Bulgarian Stock Markets," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 92-114, July.
    17. Itzhak Ben‐David & Francesco Franzoni & Augustin Landier & Rabih Moussawi, 2013. "Do Hedge Funds Manipulate Stock Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2383-2434, December.
    18. Bungo Miyazaki & Kiyoshi Izumi & Fujio Toriumi & Ryo Takahashi, 2014. "Change Detection Of Orders In Stock Markets Using A Gaussian Mixture Model," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 169-191, July.
    19. Aitken, Michael & Cumming, Douglas & Zhan, Feng, 2015. "High frequency trading and end-of-day price dislocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 330-349.
    20. Iwatsubo, Kentaro & Watkins, Clinton & Xu, Tao, 2018. "Intraday seasonality in efficiency, liquidity, volatility and volume: Platinum and gold futures in Tokyo and New York," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 59-71.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:38:y:2018:i:8:p:841-864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.