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Volatility forecasting of crude oil market: A new hybrid method

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  • Yue‐Jun Zhang
  • Jin‐Liang Zhang

Abstract

Given the complex characteristics of crude oil price volatility, a new hybrid forecasting method based on the hidden Markov, exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, and least squares support vector machine models is proposed, and the forecasting performance of the new method is compared with that of well‐recognized generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity class and other related forecasting methods. The results indicate that the new hybrid forecasting method can significantly improve forecasting accuracy of crude oil price volatility. Furthermore, the new method has been demonstrated to be more accurate for the forecast of crude oil price volatility particularly in a longer time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue‐Jun Zhang & Jin‐Liang Zhang, 2018. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil market: A new hybrid method," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 781-789, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:37:y:2018:i:8:p:781-789
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2502
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Jinliang & Wei, Yiming & Tan, Zhongfu, 2020. "An adaptive hybrid model for short term wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Stelios Bekiros & Jose Arreola Hernandez & Gazi Salah Uddin & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2020. "On the predictability of crude oil market: A hybrid multiscale wavelet approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 599-614, July.
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wang, Jin-Li, 2019. "Do high-frequency stock market data help forecast crude oil prices? Evidence from the MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-201.
    4. Wang, Fan & Tian, Lixin & Du, Ruijin & Dong, Gaogao, 2021. "Universal law in the crude oil market based on visibility graph algorithm and network structure," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Qin, Quande & Xie, Kangqiang & He, Huangda & Li, Li & Chu, Xianghua & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wu, Teresa, 2019. "An effective and robust decomposition-ensemble energy price forecasting paradigm with local linear prediction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 402-414.
    6. Zhang, Jinliang & Tan, Zhongfu & Wei, Yiming, 2020. "An adaptive hybrid model for short term electricity price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    7. Marcin Fałdziński & Piotr Fiszeder & Witold Orzeszko, 2020. "Forecasting Volatility of Energy Commodities: Comparison of GARCH Models with Support Vector Regression," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 14(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Taiyong Li & Yingrui Zhou & Xinsheng Li & Jiang Wu & Ting He, 2019. "Forecasting Daily Crude Oil Prices Using Improved CEEMDAN and Ridge Regression-Based Predictors," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(19), pages 1-25, September.
    9. Yue-Jun Zhang & Shu-Hui Li, 2019. "The impact of investor sentiment on crude oil market risks: evidence from the wavelet approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1357-1371, August.
    10. Liu, Yue & Sun, Huaping & Zhang, Jijian & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2020. "Detection of volatility regime-switching for crude oil price modeling and forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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