IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Stock Returns: Do Commodity Prices Help?


  • Angela J. Black
  • Olga Klinkowska
  • David G. McMillan
  • Fiona J. McMillan


ABSTRACT This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long‐run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards commodity investing may affect the nature of the response to disequilibrium. Results support cointegration between stock and commodity prices, while Bai–Perron tests identify breaks in the forecast regression. Forecasts are computed using a standard fixed (static) in‐sample/out‐of‐sample approach and by both recursive and rolling regressions, which incorporate the effects of changing forecast parameter values. A range of model specifications and forecast metrics are used. The historical mean model outperforms the forecast models in both the static and recursive approaches. However, in the rolling forecasts, those models that incorporate information from the long‐run stock price/commodity price relationship outperform both the historical mean and other forecast models. Of note, the historical mean still performs relatively well compared to standard forecast models that include the dividend yield and short‐term interest rates but not the stock/commodity price ratio. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela J. Black & Olga Klinkowska & David G. McMillan & Fiona J. McMillan, 2014. "Forecasting Stock Returns: Do Commodity Prices Help?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 627-639, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:33:y:2014:i:8:p:627-639

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:glofin:v:41:y:2019:i:c:p:60-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:552-567 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2018. "Testing the predictability of commodity prices in stock returns: A new perspective," Working Papers 061, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    4. repec:eee:ejores:v:278:y:2019:i:1:p:330-342 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:577-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Can commodity returns forecast Canadian sector stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 172-188.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:33:y:2014:i:8:p:627-639. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.