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Post†Earnings Announcement Drift and the Dissemination of Predictable Information

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  • LEONARD C. SOFFER
  • THOMAS LYS

Abstract

Building on the work of Bernard and Thomas 1990, we develop a model to infer the degree to which the information in an earnings announcement is incorporated into investors' expectations for the subsequent earnings announcement at any point in time between the two announcements. We are unable to reject the null hypothesis that investors' earnings expectations are based on a seasonal random walk and reflect none of the implications of the immediately prior earnings announcement up to 15 trading days after that announcement. By mid†quarter, expectations are significantly more sophisticated than a seasonal random walk. Two trading days before the next earnings announcement, as much as one half of the information in the prior earnings announcement is reflected in earnings expectations. We also find that the dissemination of information, albeit predictable information, speeds the incorporation of prior earnings information into earnings expectations. Our results suggest that as information about future earnings that could have been discerned from the earlier announcements (because past earnings surprises predict future ones) is disseminated in a more transparent form, investors revise their earnings expectations to reflect this information. Thus, the investors' expectations appear to incorporate more and more of the serial correlation in earnings surprises as the quarter progresses, even though they do not consider per se the serial correlation in earnings surprises in forming their expectations.

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  • Leonard C. Soffer & Thomas Lys, 1999. "Post†Earnings Announcement Drift and the Dissemination of Predictable Information," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 305-331, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:16:y:1999:i:2:p:305-331
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1999.tb00583.x
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    1. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    2. David P. Weber, 2009. "Do Analysts and Investors Fully Appreciate the Implications of Book†Tax Differences for Future Earnings?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 1175-1206, December.
    3. Jacob K. Thomas, 1999. "Discussion of “Post†Earnings Announcement Drift and the Dissemination of Predictable Information†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 333-340, June.
    4. Sami Keskek & James N. Myers & Linda A. Myers, 2020. "Investors' Misweighting of Firm‐Level Information and the Market's Expectations of Earnings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 1828-1853, September.
    5. Olczak, Wioleta, 2021. "The foreign corrupt practices act: How investors respond when violation severity and corresponding penalty (mis)match," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Constantinos Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Daniel Read, 2014. "Ambiguity Aversion, Company Size and the Pricing of Earnings Forecasts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 633-651, June.
    7. Li, Zhaochu & Lytvynenko, Iryna P., 2021. "Currency fluctuations and the post-earnings announcement drift," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    8. Suijs, J.P.M., 2002. "Post Earnings Announcement Drift : More Risk than Investors can Bear," Discussion Paper 2002-45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Jonathan A. Milian, 2015. "Unsophisticated Arbitrageurs and Market Efficiency: Overreacting to a History of Underreaction?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 175-220, March.
    10. David Hirshleifer & James N. Myers & Linda A. Myers & Siew Hong Teoh, 2004. "Do Individual Investors Drive Post-Earnings Announcement Drift? Direct Evidence from Personal Trades," Finance 0412003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Carlos Forner & Sonia Sanabria, 2010. "Post-Earnings Announcement Drift in Spain and Behavioural Finance Models," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 775-815.
    12. Hyunjung Choi & Haeyoung Ryu, 2021. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Post Earnings Announcement Drift: Evidence from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-13, June.
    13. Suijs, J.P.M., 2002. "Post Earnings Announcement Drift : More Risk than Investors can Bear," Other publications TiSEM d6097fef-8dd8-4f8a-814a-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Thomas J. Lopez & Craig A. Sisneros & Trevor Sorensen, 2020. "The market pricing of negative special items through time: an unintended consequence of regulation change?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 753-777, February.
    15. Kenneth Lorek & G. Willinger, 2007. "The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-22, January.
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    17. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    18. Lawrence D. Brown, 1999. "Comment on “Post†Earnings Announcement Drift and the Diseemination of Predictable Information†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 341-345, June.
    19. Choi, Hyunjung & Cho, Jungeun, 2021. "Related-party transactions and post-earnings announcement drift: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    20. Carlos Forner & Sonia Sanabria & Joaquín Marhuenda, 2009. "Post-earnings announcement drift: Spanish evidence," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 207-241, September.
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