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Die Wahl des Lebenseinkommensverlaufes für langfristige fiskalpolitische Simulationen

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  • Thomas Url

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die Bewertung aktueller fiskalpolitischer Maßnahmen sollte auch deren langfristige Auswirkungen auf den Finanzierungssaldo des Gesamtstaates beinhalten. Zur Berechnung langfristiger Folgen sind Kohortenmodelle (mit Geburtsjahrgängen) von Vorteil, wenn die untersuchte Budgetkomponente vom laufenden Einkommen abhängt und das Durchschnittseinkommen über die Lebenszeit nicht konstant ist. In diesem Fall entsteht durch demographischen Wandel eine Änderung der Besetzung einzelner Altersstufen in der erwerbstätigen Bevölkerung. Demographischer Wandel führt in Verbindung mit einem variablen Lebenseinkommensverlauf zu einer Anpassung des Durchschnittseinkommens mit entsprechenden Rückwirkungen auf die Entwicklung der Budgetkomponente. Das Pensionsversicherungssystem ist ein klassisches Beispiel für die Anwendung von Kohortenmodellen.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Url, 2001. "Die Wahl des Lebenseinkommensverlaufes für langfristige fiskalpolitische Simulationen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(6), pages 383-390, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:monber:y:2001:i:6:p:383-390
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    References listed on IDEAS

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