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The Crisis Hits Home: Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Sugawara, Naotaka

    () (World Bank)

  • Sulla, Victor

    () (World Bank)

  • Taylor, Ashley

    () (World Bank)

  • Tiongson, Erwin R.

    () (World Bank)

Abstract

The financial crisis and economic downturn threatens the welfare of more than 160 million people who are poor or are just above the poverty line in the economies of Eastern and Central Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Turkey. This note concerns the findings of recent World Bank analysis (Tiongson et al. 2010)1 that uses precrisis household data and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes in these countries to simulate the impact of the crisis on households—transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks. The adverse effects are widespread, with both poor and nonpoor households being vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, it is estimated that some 11 million more people will be in poverty and more than 23 million additional people will find themselves just above the poverty line because of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sugawara, Naotaka & Sulla, Victor & Taylor, Ashley & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home: Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 12, pages 1-4, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alderman, H. & Paxson, C.H., 1992. "Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of the Literature on Risk and Consumption in Developing Countries," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    2. Sugawara, Naotaka & Sulla, Victor & Taylor, Ashley & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home: Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 12, pages 1-4, May.
    3. World Bank, 2009. "Armenia : Implications of the Global Economic Crisis for Poverty," World Bank Other Operational Studies 3119, The World Bank.
    4. Meral Karasulu, 2008. "Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea," IMF Working Papers 08/255, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Karen Á. Vignisdóttir, 2012. "Households’ position in the financial crisis in Iceland. Analysis based on a nationwide household-level database," Economics wp59, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    2. Piatkowski, Marcin & Zalduendo, Juan, 2010. "Assessing EU-10 Banking Sector's Resilience to Credit Losses," MPRA Paper 24631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan & Haimovich, Francisco & Azam, Mehtabul, 2012. "Simulating the impact of the 2009 financial crisis on welfare in Latvia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5960, The World Bank.
    4. Vladimir Gligorov & Kosovka Ognjenović & Hermine Vidovic, 2011. "Assessment of the Labour Market in Serbia," wiiw Research Reports 371, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. repec:unt:jnapdj:v:24:y:2017:i:2:p:23-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Otker-Robe, Inci & Podpiera, Anca Maria, 2013. "The social impact of financial crises: evidence from the global financial crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6703, The World Bank.
    7. Erwin R. Tiongson & Naotaka Sugawara & Victor Sulla & Ashley Taylor & Anna I. Gueorguieva & Victoria Levin & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2396, June.
    8. Dorothee Bohle, 2014. "Post-socialist housing meets transnational finance: Foreign banks, mortgage lending, and the privatization of welfare in Hungary and Estonia," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 913-948, August.
    9. Sugawara, Naotaka & Zalduendo, Juan, 2011. "Stress-testing croatian households with debt -- implications for financial stability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5906, The World Bank.
    10. Pradeep Mitra & Marcelo Selowsky & Juan Zalduendo, 2010. "Turmoil at Twenty : Recession, Recovery, and Reform in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2682.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial cirsis; stress testing; household income; Europe; Central Asia; welfare; Soviet Union; Turkey; World Bank; shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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