IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/offsta/v37y2021i3p719-750n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploratory Assessment of the Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Wazir Asif

    (United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Islamabad, Pakistan. Level 2, Serena Business Complex G-5/1, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.)

  • Goujon Anne

    (Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna Institute of Demography, Vordere Zollamtsstrabe 3, 1030 Vienna, Austria.)

Abstract

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, particularly in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this article to use demographic analysis to assess the results of the 2017 census at the sub-national level, using data from the 1998 census, from all available intercensal surveys, including three rounds of Demographic and Health Survey. Applying the cohort-component method of population projection, we subject each five first-level subnational entities to estimates regarding the level of fertility, mortality, international, and internal migration derived from the analysis of the existing data. We arrive at approximately similar results as the census at the national level: an estimated 210 million (95% CI: 203.4–218.9) compared to 207.8 million counted (1.1% difference). However, we found substantial sub-national variations. While there are too many uncertainties in the data used for the reconstruction to be fully confident about them, this analysis should prompt the national and the international community to ensure that a post-enumeration survey and demographic analysis are regular features of census operations of Pakistan in particular, and in developing countries with deficient data as a whole.

Suggested Citation

  • Wazir Asif & Goujon Anne, 2021. "Exploratory Assessment of the Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 719-750, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:719-750:n:4
    DOI: 10.2478/jos-2021-0032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0032
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/jos-2021-0032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mariani, Fabio & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín & Raffin, Natacha, 2010. "Life expectancy and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 798-815, April.
    2. Romesh Silva, 2012. "Child Mortality Estimation: Consistency of Under-Five Mortality Rate Estimates Using Full Birth Histories and Summary Birth Histories," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546.
    4. Thomas Spoorenberg, 2013. "Demographic Changes in Myanmar since 1983: An Examination of Official Data," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(2), pages 309-324, June.
    5. Mark C. Wheldon & Adrian E. Raftery & Samuel J. Clark & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 96-110, March.
    6. Frans Willekens & Sabine Zinn & Matthias Leuchter, 2017. "Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2159-2179, December.
    7. Adrian E. Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Nevena Lalic, 2014. "Joint probabilistic projection of female and male life expectancy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(27), pages 795-822.
    8. Mark C. Wheldon & Adrian E. Raftery & Samuel J. Clark & Patrick Gerland, 2016. "Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(1), pages 21-37, March.
    9. Thomas Spoorenberg & Daniel Schwekendiek, 2012. "Demographic Changes in North Korea: 1993–2008," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(1), pages 133-158, March.
    10. Bruno Schoumaker, 2013. "A Stata module for computing fertility rates and TFRs from birth histories: tfr2," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(38), pages 1093-1144.
    11. Muhammad Asif Wazir & Anne Goujon, 2019. "Assessing the 2017 Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis: A Sub-National Perspective," VID Working Papers 1906, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    12. Jon Pedersen & Jing Liu, 2012. "Child Mortality Estimation: Appropriate Time Periods for Child Mortality Estimates from Full Birth Histories," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-13, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Asif Wazir & Anne Goujon, 2019. "Assessing the 2017 Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis: A Sub-National Perspective," VID Working Papers 1906, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    2. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    3. Willekens Frans, 2019. "Evidence-Based Monitoring of International Migration Flows in Europe," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 231-277, March.
    4. Katie Wilson & Jon Wakefield, 2021. "Child mortality estimation incorporating summary birth history data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1456-1466, December.
    5. repec:osf:socarx:sz8n9_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Leontine Alkema & Jin Rou New & Jon Pedersen & Danzhen You & all members of the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and its Technical Advisory Group, 2014. "Child Mortality Estimation 2013: An Overview of Updates in Estimation Methods by the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-13, July.
    7. Monica Alexander & Adrian E. Raftery, 2024. "Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography: An interview with Adrian Raftery," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(1), pages 1-16.
    8. Lesly Cassin, 2018. "The effects of migration and pollution externality on cognitive skills in Caribbean economies: a Theoretical analysis," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-30, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Martin Henseler & Ingmar Schumacher, 2019. "The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 417-433, June.
    10. Katie Wilson & Jon Wakefield, 2022. "A probabilistic model for analyzing summary birth history data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(11), pages 291-344.
    11. Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron & Raouf Boucekkine & Vladimir Veliov, 2019. "Distributed Optimal Control Models in Environmental Economics: A Review," AMSE Working Papers 1902, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    12. Constant, Karine & Davin, Marion, 2019. "Environmental Policy And Growth When Environmental Awareness Is Endogenous," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1102-1136, April.
    13. Vella, Eugenia & Dioikitopoulos, Evangelos V. & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2015. "Green Spending Reforms, Growth, And Welfare With Endogenous Subjective Discounting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1240-1260, September.
    14. Evangelos V. Dioikitopoulos & Sugata Ghosh & Eugenia Vella, 2016. "Technological Progress, Time Perception and Environmental Sustainability," Working Papers 2016002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    15. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Intan Zanariah Zakaria, 2011. "Growth and Demographic Change: Do Environmental Factors Matter?," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/46, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    16. Thomas Bassetti & Nikos Benos & Stelios Karagiannis, 2013. "CO 2 Emissions and Income Dynamics: What Does the Global Evidence Tell Us?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 101-125, January.
    17. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    18. Apsara Karki Nepal & Martin Halla & Steven Stillman, 2018. "Violent Conflict and the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff," Economics working papers 2018-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    19. Hathi, Payal, 2022. "Population science implications of the inclusion of stillbirths in demographic estimates of child mortality," SocArXiv sz8n9, Center for Open Science.
    20. Glen RAYP & Ilse RUYSSSEN & Samuel STANDAERT, 2024. "Selecting only the best and brightest? An assessment of migration policy selectivity and its effectiveness," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 90(3), pages 352-383, September.
    21. Dominik Paprotny, 2021. "Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 193-225, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:37:y:2021:i:3:p:719-750:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.