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Construction of the migration flows forecasting into Russian regions

Author

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  • Aleksandr Tarasyev

    (Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This paper presents a dynamic model that can predict the dynamics of migration flows between source countries and host regions, as well as the dynamics of wage levels there. The model is constructed within the framework of neoclassical economics and human capital theory in continuous time. Thanks to liberalization of migration policy in Russia in 2007, the model could be successfully employed to Russian regions and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which have visa-free entry regulations with the Russian Federation. Employing the model on statistical data, we forecast the number and origin composition of foreign labor force from the CIS into Russian regions for 2010-2016. The purpose of our further research is to classify migrants by skills.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandr Tarasyev, 2013. "Construction of the migration flows forecasting into Russian regions," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 193-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2013:i:2:p:193-199
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aleksandra Vasilyeva & Aleksandr Tarasyev, 2012. "Dynamic multiregional model of labour migration: construction and realization," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 140-148.
    2. Aleksandra Vasilyeva, 2009. "Estimation of demographic policy in the framework of effective region development maintenance mechanism," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 219-223.
    3. Theodore Palivos, 2009. "Welfare effects of illegal immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 131-144, January.
    4. Aleksandra Vasilyeva & Aleksandr Tarasyev, 2012. "Dynamic multiregional model of labour migration: construction and realization," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 149-157.
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