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Estimating Fiscal Reaction Functions in Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines

Author

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  • Lau, Evan

    (Centre for Business, Economics and Finance Forecasting Universiti Malaysia Sarawak 94300 Kota Samarahan, Sarawak MALAYSIA)

  • Lee, Alvina Syn-Yee

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Universiti Malaysia Sarawak 94300 Kota Samarahan, Sarawak MALAYSIA)

Abstract

As with most of the world economy, the 2008/09 global financial crisis has brought massive impacts on Southeast Asian economies. The debt/GDP ratios in most economies rose significantly, thus putting the spotlight again on fiscal sustainability. This article aims to distinguish the reaction of the primary balance/GDP to changes in the debt/GDP to assess the fiscal sustainability of Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. In investigating how the respective governments react to the accumulation of debt, the article estimates the fiscal reaction function, initiated by Bohn (1998), using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Vector Autoregression (VAR). The empirical analysis reveals that, based on past behaviour, fiscal policy in Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines remains sustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Lau, Evan & Lee, Alvina Syn-Yee, 2018. "Estimating Fiscal Reaction Functions in Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 67-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukm:jlekon:v:52:y:2018:i:1:p:67-76
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/JEM-2018-5201-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-271, February.
    3. Henning Bohn, "undated". "Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments ? Some Historical Evidence for the United States (Reprint 013)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Bart W. Edes & Peter J. Morgan, 2014. "Managing Fiscal Sustainability and Aging in Emerging Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(2), pages 319-348, August.
    5. Bohn, Henning, 1991. "Budget balance through revenue or spending adjustments? : Some historical evidence for the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 333-359, June.
    6. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    7. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    9. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
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