IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/tpolec/doi10.1086-675590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial Valuation of PBGC Insurance with Market-Implied Default Probabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Jules H. van Binsbergen
  • Robert Novy-Marx
  • Joshua Rauh

Abstract

In this paper, we use financial valuation techniques to measure the unfunded liabilities associated with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) single-employer pension insurance program. This is an alternative approach to the calculations of expected future PBGC payouts in the PBGC exposure reports. The PBGC insurance is akin to an exchange option, a financial instrument that allows a party to exchange one risky asset for another. Calculating the value of this option for each PBGC-covered plan provides a measure of the fair market price of the PBGC guarantee that is consistent with the finance principles of risk-neutral pricing. That is, the market valuation method reflects the fact that bad outcomes tend to coincide with times when losses are particularly painful. The valuation we perform also reflects the fact that PBGC insurance is triggered only in the case of bankruptcy by drawing on the default probabilities implied by the credit ratings of insured plans. Under the baseline parameters, the PBGC's insurance of the unfunded liabilities has a financial value of $358 billion, net of the estimated present value of PBGC premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2014. "Financial Valuation of PBGC Insurance with Market-Implied Default Probabilities," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 133-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:tpolec:doi:10.1086/675590
    DOI: 10.1086/675590
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/675590
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/675590
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/675590?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan Marcus, 1987. "Corporate Pension Policy and the Value of PBGC Insurance," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 49-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey R. Brown, 2008. "Guaranteed Trouble: The Economic Effects of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 177-198, Winter.
    3. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
    4. Treynor, Jack L, 1977. "The Principles of Corporate Pension Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 627-638, May.
    5. Bodie, Zvi & Shoven, John B. & Wise, David A. (ed.), 1987. "Issues in Pension Economics," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226062846, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joshua D. Rauh, 2015. "Why City Pension Problems Have Not Improved, and a Roadmap Forward," Economics Working Papers 15101, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, An & Uzelac, Filip, 2014. "A risk-based premium: What does it mean for DB plan sponsors?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Romaniuk, Katarzyna, 2019. "Premiums of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation and risk-taking by pension plans," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 301-307.
    3. Qian, Linyi & Shen, Yang & Wang, Wei & Yang, Zhixin, 2019. "Valuation of risk-based premium of DB pension plan with terminations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 51-63.
    4. Cotter, John & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Financial Risks and the Pension Protection Fund: Can it Survive Them?," MPRA Paper 3498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Romaniuk, Katarzyna, 2021. "Pension insurance schemes and moral hazard: The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation should restrict the insured pension plans’ portfolio policy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 37-43.
    6. Joshua Rauh, 2007. "Risk Shifting versus Risk Management: Investment Policy in Corporate Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 13240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Webb, David C., 2004. "Sponsoring company finance and investment and defined benefit pension scheme deficits," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24699, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Michaelides, Alexander & Papakyriakou, Panayiotis & Milidonis, Andreas, 2019. "Corporate Pension Plan Funding Levels and Pension Assumptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 13591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Joseph G. Haubrich & James B. Thomson, 1994. "A conference on federal credit allocation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 30(Q III), pages 2-13.
    10. Chen, An, 2011. "A risk-based model for the valuation of pension insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 401-409.
    11. Móricz, Dániel, 2004. "Vállalati szolgáltatási nyugdíjprogramok optimális befektetési politikája és fedezettségi szintje az Egyesült Államokban [Optimal investment and funding policy of US defined-benefit pension plans]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1113-1131.
    12. David McCarthy & David Miles, 2013. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation for Corporate Pension Funds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 599-629, June.
    13. Dirk Broeders & An Chen, 2013. "Pension Benefit Security: A Comparison of Solvency Requirements, a Pension Guarantee Fund, and Sponsor Support," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 239-272, June.
    14. John Cotter & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2012. "What Should Be Done About The Underfunding of Defined Benefit Pension Schemes?," Working Papers 201202, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13624 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Zvi Bodie, 1989. "Pension Funds and Financial Innovation," NBER Working Papers 3101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Zvi Bodie & Alan J. Marcus & Robert C. Merton, 1988. "Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Pension Plans: What are the Real Trade-offs?," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 139-162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. An, Heng & Huang, Zhaodan & Zhang, Ting, 2013. "What determines corporate pension fund risk-taking strategy?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 597-613.
    19. Smetters, Kent, 2002. "Controlling the cost of minimum benefit guarantees in public pension conversions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 9-33, March.
    20. Kalra, Raman & Jain, Gautam, 1997. "A continuous-time model to determine the intervention policy for PBGC," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(8), pages 1159-1177, August.
    21. Gaobo Pang & Mark Warshawsky, 2013. "Comparing Costs and Risks of Retirement Plans for Sponsors," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 16(2), pages 195-217, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:tpolec:doi:10.1086/675590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/TPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.