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An Empirical Model of Tax Convexity and Self-Employment

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François Wen

    (University of Calgary)

  • Daniel V. Gordon

    (University of Calgary and University of Stavanger)

Abstract

Do progressive marginal income tax rates discourage self-employment? We assume risk neutrality to construct an implicit surtax on stochastic income relative to steady income, arising from a convex tax schedule. It is computed as part of a structural probit model with earnings equations and a tax simulator. The tax convexity variable and the net-of-tax income difference between self- and paid employment have the predicted signs and high levels of statistical significance for the probability of self-employment. A simulated flat tax reform suggests the tax effects are small. © 2014 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Wen & Daniel V. Gordon, 2014. "An Empirical Model of Tax Convexity and Self-Employment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 471-482, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:96:y:2014:i:3:p:471-482
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce, Donald & Gurley-Calvez, Tami J. & Norwood, Alex, 2020. "Entrepreneurship as Trust," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 16(5), pages 393-443, April.
    2. Daniel V. Gordon & Jean-François Wen, 2018. "Tax penalties on fluctuating incomes: estimates from longitudinal data," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 430-457, April.
    3. Sebastián Castillo, 2024. "Tax policy design in a hierarchical model with occupational decisions," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(5), pages 1295-1341, October.
    4. Wiji Arulampalam & Andrea Papini, 2023. "Tax Progressivity and Self-Employment Dynamics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 376-391, March.
    5. Zsófia L. Bárány, 2017. "Taxation and self-employment," LIS Working papers 723, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    6. Frank M. Fossen & Johannes König & Carsten Schröder, 2024. "Risk preference and entrepreneurial investment at the top of the wealth distribution," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 735-761, February.
    7. Gustavo A. Caballero, 2017. "Responsibility or autonomy: children and the probability of self-employment in the USA," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 493-512, August.
    8. Ådne Cappelen & Aurora G. Hattrem & Thor O. Thoresen, 2024. "Micro and macro evidence of the relationship between income mobility and taxation," Discussion Papers 1010, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Ege Can, 2022. "Income taxation, entrepreneurship, and incorporation status of self-employment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(5), pages 1260-1293, October.
    10. Hossain, Md Mobarak & Fossen, Frank M. & Mukhopadhyay, Sankar, 2025. "An Estimated Model of Employer and Non-Employer Entrepreneurship," IZA Discussion Papers 18009, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Bruno Paolo Bosco & Carlo Federico Bosco & Paolo Maranzano, 2025. "Labour responsiveness to income tax changes: empirical evidence from a DID analysis of an income tax treatment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 787-828, August.
    12. Sebastián Castillo & Romina Safojan, 2024. "Tax Evasion and Self-Employment Decisions: Evidence from an Income Tax Reform in Chile," Working Papers 31, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research.
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2hpm2pgsb78r2a2lh6ahev49mj is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pourya Darnihamedani & Joern Hendrich Block & Jolanda Hessels & Aram Simonyan, 2018. "Taxes, start-up costs, and innovative entrepreneurship," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 355-369, August.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2hpm2pgsb78r2a2lh6ahev49mj is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Fossen, Frank M. & Rees, Ray & Rostam-Afschar, Davud & Steiner, Viktor, 2017. "How do entrepreneurial portfolios respond to income taxation?," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 12-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    17. Ábrahám, Árpád & Gottardi, Piero & Hubmer, Joachim & Mayr, Lukas, 2023. "Tax wedges, financial frictions and misallocation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    18. Frank Fossen & Ray Rees & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2017. "How Do Entrepreneurial Portfolios Respond to Taxation?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6558, CESifo.
    19. Ergete Ferede, 2021. "Entrepreneurship and personal income tax: evidence from Canadian provinces," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1765-1781, April.
    20. Can Ege & Fossen Frank M., 2026. "Income Taxation and Hours Worked in Different Types of Entrepreneurship," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 245-297.
    21. Frank M. Fossen & Ray Rees & Davud Rostam-Afschar & Viktor Steiner, 2020. "The effects of income taxation on entrepreneurial investment: A puzzle?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1321-1363, December.
    22. Jean-Marie Dufour & Joachim Wilde, 2018. "Weak identification in probit models with endogenous covariates," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 102(4), pages 611-631, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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