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Superstars without Talent? The Yule Distribution Controversy

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Spierdijk

    (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Groningen)

  • Mark Voorneveld

    (Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, and Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University)

Abstract

Chung and Cox (1994) provided an intuitively appealing stochastic model indicating that superstars may exist regardless of talent, giving rise to the Yule distribution. We adopt a different empirical approach and test its goodness of fit using a parametric bootstrap and several powerful test statistics. Just like the discrete Pareto distribution, it is overwhelmingly rejected: it is a fairly accurate approximation of the lower quantiles of the superstar distribution but overestimates the snowball effect that makes consumers purchase records of the most successful artists. In other words, the Yule distribution captures stardom, but not superstardom. A generalization of the Yule distribution provides an excellent fit in two of the three data sets. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Spierdijk & Mark Voorneveld, 2009. "Superstars without Talent? The Yule Distribution Controversy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 648-652, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:91:y:2009:i:3:p:648-652
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenli Deng & Jinglong Wang & Xianyi Wu & Huan Xi, 2025. "A novel goodness of fit test for the truncated and non-truncated Yule distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Brinja Meiseberg, 2014. "Trust the artist versus trust the tale: performance implications of talent and self-marketing in folk music," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 38(1), pages 9-42, February.
    3. Fabrizio Leisen & Luca Rossini & Cristiano Villa, 2018. "Objective bayesian analysis of the Yule–Simon distribution with applications," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 99-126, March.
    4. Martínez-Rodríguez, A.M. & Sáez-Castillo, A.J. & Conde-Sánchez, A., 2011. "Modelling using an extended Yule distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 863-873, January.
    5. Francisco Alcalá & Miguel González‐Maestre, 2012. "Artistic Creation and Intellectual Property: A Professional Career Approach," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 633-672, September.
    6. Hofmann, Julian & Schnittka, Oliver & Johnen, Marius & Kottemann, Pascal, 2021. "Talent or popularity: What drives market value and brand image for human brands?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 748-758.
    7. Günther G. Schulze, 2011. "Superstars," Chapters, in: Ruth Towse (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 56, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Kotrba, Vojtěch, 2019. "Direct preferences of sports fans: Is there a superstar effect in the fantasy league?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 89-97.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature

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