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An Integrated Test for Electoral Cycles in the U.S. Economy

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  • Haynes, Stephen E
  • Stone, Joe A

Abstract

This paper offers the first integrated test of the electoral model of business cycles. The test begins with unrestricted estimates of presidential electoral patterns in U.S. economic outcomes (real GNP, unemployment, and inflation) and policies (money growth and the adjusted budget surplus). These estimates are then used to determine whether the estimated electoral patterns in macropolicy yield predicted electoral patterns for macro outcomes that are consistent with estimates of both actual electoral patterns in outcomes and voting behavior. The results indicate that four-year electoral cycles in macroeconomic outcomes and policies are strongly significant for the United States for the period 1951I to 1986II. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

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  • Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1989. "An Integrated Test for Electoral Cycles in the U.S. Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 426-434, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:71:y:1989:i:3:p:426-34
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Chiu, Eric M.P., 2020. "Reexamining the Macroeconomic Policy Cycle in Taiwan: Evidence from the Central Bank’s Monetary Reaction Function," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(2), pages 89-110, December.
    3. Hendrik Dalen & Otto Swank, 1996. "Government spending cycles: Ideological or opportunistic?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 89(1), pages 183-200, October.
    4. Ahmet Emrah Tayyar, 2017. "Political Monetary Cycles In Coalition And Single Party Government Periods: A Case Study On Turkey," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 89-111, December.
    5. Alpanda, Sami & Honig, Adam, 2007. "Political Monetary Cycles and a New de facto Ranking of Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 5898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
    7. Block, Steven A. & Vaaler, Paul M., 2004. "The price of democracy: sovereign risk ratings, bond spreads and political business cycles in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 917-946, October.
    8. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    9. Stone, Joe A. & Jacobs, David, 2020. "Presidential party affiliation and electoral cycles in the U.S. economy: Evidence from party changes in adjacent terms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Huong Dang, 2014. "How dimensions of national culture and institutional characteristics influence sovereign rating migration dynamics," ZenTra Working Papers in Transnational Studies 42 / 2014, ZenTra - Center for Transnational Studies.
    11. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    12. Faust, Jon & Irons, John S., 1999. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 61-89, February.
    13. Jon Faust & John S. Irons, 1996. "Money, politics and the post-war business cycle," International Finance Discussion Papers 572, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey & Mike Dempsey, 1998. "Share prices under Tory and Labour governments in the UK since 1945," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 389-400.
    15. Oriola, Hugo, 2023. "Political monetary cycles: An empirical study," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Alpanda, Sami & Honig, Adam, 2010. "Political monetary cycles and a de facto ranking of central bank independence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1003-1023, October.
    17. Sami Alpanda & Adam Honig, 2009. "The Impact of Central Bank Independence on Political Monetary Cycles in Advanced and Developing Nations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1365-1389, October.
    18. Chappell, Henry Jr. & Havrilesky, Thomas M. & McGregor, Rob Roy, 1995. "Policymakers, institutions, and central bank decisions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 113-136, May.

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