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Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: The case of Portugal, 1527–1864

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  • Nuno Palma
  • Jaime Reis
  • Mengtian Zhang

Abstract

We offer a new methodology for the construction of annual population stocks over the very long run. Our method does not require the assumption of a closed economy, and can be used in situations in which local annual gross flows are obtainable. Combining gross flows with intermittent census-type data, it is possible to arrive at local, regional and national population stock estimates at annual frequencies. We provide an application to early modern and nineteenth century Portugal, using a large sample of parish-level statistics up to the first modern census of 1864. All six major regions of the country are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuno Palma & Jaime Reis & Mengtian Zhang, 2020. "Reconstruction of regional and national population using intermittent census-type data: The case of Portugal, 1527–1864," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 11-27, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:vhimxx:v:53:y:2020:i:1:p:11-27
    DOI: 10.1080/01615440.2019.1666762
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    1. Broadberry,Stephen & Campbell,Bruce M. S. & Klein,Alexander & Overton,Mark & van Leeuwen,Bas, 2015. "British Economic Growth, 1270–1870," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107070783.
    2. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime, 2019. "From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 477-506, June.
    3. Leonor Freire Costa & Nuno Palma & Jaime Reis, 2015. "Editor's choice The great escape? The contribution of the empire to Portugal's economic growth, 1500–1800," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 19(1), pages 1-22.
    4. Alan Fernihough, 2013. "Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 311-332, February.
    5. Chiarini, Bruno, 2010. "Was Malthus right? The relationship between population and real wages in Italian history, 1320 to 1870," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 460-475, October.
    6. Ulrich Pfister & Georg Fertig, 2010. "The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Nicolini, Esteban A., 2007. "Was Malthus right? A VAR analysis of economic and demographic interactions in pre-industrial England," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 99-121, April.
    8. Loveman, Mara, 2014. "National Colors: Racial Classification and the State in Latin America," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199337361, Decembrie.
    9. Rodney Benjamin Edvinsson, 2015. "Recalculating Swedish pre-census demographic data: Was there acceleration in early modern population growth?," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 9(2), pages 167-191, May.
    10. Yvonne Stolz & Joerg Baten & Jaime Reis, 2013. "Portuguese living standards, 1720–1980, in European comparison: heights, income, and human capital," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(2), pages 545-578, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonor Freire Costa & António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2022. "Anatomy of a Premodern State," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2208, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    2. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime, 2019. "From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 477-506, June.
    3. António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Comparative European Institutions and the Little Divergence, 1385–1800," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 259-294, June.
    4. Jaime Reis, 2016. "The Gross Agricultural Output of Portugal: A Quantitative, Unified Perspective, 1500-1850," Working Papers 0098, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    5. Palma, Nuno & Charotti, Carlos Javier & dos Santos, Joao Pereira, 2022. "American treasure and the decline of Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 17020, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime & Rodrigues, Lisbeth, 2023. "Historical gender discrimination does not explain comparative Western European development: evidence from Portugal, 1300-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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