IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jechis/v85y2025i3p730-766_4.html

The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Kedrosky, Davis
  • Palma, Nuno

Abstract

As late as 1750, Portugal had a high output per head by Western European standards. Yet just a century later, Portugal was this region’s poorest country. In this paper, we show that the discovery of massive quantities of gold in Brazil over the eighteenth century played a key role in the long-run development of Portugal. The country suffered from an economic and political resource curse. A counterfactual based on synthetic control methods suggests that by 1800 Portugal’s GDP per capita was 40 percent lower than it would have been without its endowment of Brazilian gold.

Suggested Citation

  • Kedrosky, Davis & Palma, Nuno, 2025. "The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 730-766, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:85:y:2025:i:3:p:730-766_4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022050725100764/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charotti, Carlos J. & Palma, Nuno & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2025. "American treasure and the decline of Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    2. Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2026. "Goldilocks: American Precious Metals and the Rise of the West," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 72(1), February.
    3. repec:tin:wpaper:220063 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Correction to: Comparative european institutions and the little divergence, 1385–1800," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 295-295, June.
    5. Leonor Freire Costa & António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2022. "Anatomy of a Premodern State," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2208, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised May 2024.
    6. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime & Rodrigues, Lisbeth, 2023. "Historical gender discrimination does not explain comparative Western European development: evidence from Portugal, 1300-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N53 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N73 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:85:y:2025:i:3:p:730-766_4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/jeh .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.