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The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal

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  • Kedrosky, Davis
  • Palma, Nuno

Abstract

As late as 1750, Portugal had a high output per head by Western European standards. Yet just a century later, Portugal was this region’s poorest country. In this paper, we show that the discovery of massive quantities of gold in Brazil over the eighteenth century played a key role in the long-run development of Portugal. The country suffered from an economic and political resource curse. A counterfactual based on synthetic control methods suggests that by 1800 Portugal’s GDP per capita was 40 percent lower than it would have been without its endowment of Brazilian gold.

Suggested Citation

  • Kedrosky, Davis & Palma, Nuno, 2025. "The Cross of Gold: Brazilian Treasure and the Decline of Portugal," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 730-766, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:85:y:2025:i:3:p:730-766_4
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