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Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series

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  • Min Gan
  • C.L. Philip Chen
  • Long Chen
  • Chun-Yang Zhang

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the radial basis function network-based state-dependent autoregressive (RBF-AR) model by modelling and forecasting an ecological time series: the famous Canadian lynx data. The interpretability of the state-dependent coefficients of the RBF-AR model is studied. It is found that the RBF-AR model can account for the phenomena of phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle. The post-sample forecasting performance of one-step and two-step ahead predictors of the RBF-AR model is compared with that of other competitive time-series models including various parametric and non-parametric models. The results show the usefulness of the RBF-AR model in this ecological time-series modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Min Gan & C.L. Philip Chen & Long Chen & Chun-Yang Zhang, 2016. "Exploiting the interpretability and forecasting ability of the RBF-AR model for nonlinear time series," International Journal of Systems Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 1868-1876, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tsysxx:v:47:y:2016:i:8:p:1868-1876
    DOI: 10.1080/00207721.2014.955552
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    Cited by:

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    2. Manuel R. Arahal & Manuel G. Ortega & Manuel G. Satué, 2021. "Chiller Load Forecasting Using Hyper-Gaussian Nets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-15, June.

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