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Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Survey evidence on the survival of children and siblings

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno Masquelier
  • Georges Reniers
  • Gilles Pison

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of trends in mortality in children aged under 5 and adults between the ages of 15 and 60 in sub-Saharan Africa, using data on the survival of the children and siblings collected in Demographic and Health Surveys. If conspicuous stalls in the 1990s are disregarded, child mortality levels have generally declined and converged over the last 30-40 years. In contrast, adult mortality in many East and Southern African countries has increased markedly, echoing earlier increases in the incidence of HIV. In recent years, adult mortality levels have begun to decline once again in East Africa, in some instances before the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy programmes. More surprising is the lack of sustained improvements in adult survival in some countries that have not experienced severe HIV epidemics. Because trends in child and adult mortality do not always evolve in tandem, we argue that model-based estimates, inferred by matching indices of child survival onto standard mortality schedules, can be very misleading.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Masquelier & Georges Reniers & Gilles Pison, 2014. "Divergences in trends in child and adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: Survey evidence on the survival of children and siblings," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(2), pages 161-177, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:68:y:2014:i:2:p:161-177
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.856458
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    1. Behrman, Jere R. & Deolalikar, Anil B., 1988. "Health and nutrition," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 631-711, Elsevier.
    2. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Jolly, Richard & Stewart, Frances (ed.), 1987. "Adjustment with a Human Face: Volume 1, Protecting the Vulnerable and Promoting Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286097.
    3. Gilles Pison & Laetitia Douillot & Géraldine Duthé & Malick Kante & Cheikh Sokhna & Jean-François Trape, 2013. "Successes and Failures in the Fight against Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Senegal," Working Papers 195, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
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    Cited by:

    1. Shannon Farley & Giles Reid & Kay Yuengling & Connor Wright & Vesper H. Chisumpa & George Bello & James M. Juma & Abigail R. Greenleaf & Stephen McCracken & Paul Stupp & Stéphane Helleringer & Jessica, 2024. "Excess mortality associated with HIV: Survey estimates from the PHIA project," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(38), pages 1183-1200.
    2. Ashira Menashe-Oren & Philippe Bocquier & Carren Ginsburg & Yacouba Compaoré & Mark Collinson, 2023. "The dynamic role of household structure on under-5 mortality in southern and eastern sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 49(11), pages 249-294.
    3. González Alejandro López & González-González María Jesús, 2018. "Third demographic transition and demographic dividend: An application based on panel data analysis," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 42(42), pages 59-82, December.
    4. Kassoum Dianou & Abdramane B. Soura & Bruno Lankoandé & Hervé Bassinga & Shammi Luhar & Ashira Menashe-Oren & Kelly McCain & Malebogo Tlhajoane & Georges Reniers & Bruno Masquelier, 2025. "The use of mobile phone surveys for rapid mortality monitoring: A national study in Burkina Faso," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(16), pages 479-518.
    5. Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton & Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Freire, Flávio, 2018. "Adult Mortality Differentials and Regional Development at the local level in Brazil, 1980-2010," OSF Preprints szvtq, Center for Open Science.
    6. repec:osf:osfxxx:szvtq_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stéphane Helleringer & Li Liu & Yue Chu & Amabelia Rodrigues & Ane Barent Fisker, 2020. "Biases in Survey Estimates of Neonatal Mortality: Results From a Validation Study in Urban Areas of Guinea-Bissau," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1705-1726, October.
    8. Gilles Pison & Almamy Malick Kante & Laetitia Douillot & Géraldine Duthé & Cheikh Sokhna & Valerie Delaunay & Stéphane Helleringer & Bruno Masquelier & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2018. "Estimating mortality from external causes using data from retrospective surveys: A validation study in Niakhar (Senegal)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(32), pages 879-896.
    9. Dennis M. Feehan & Mary Mahy & Matthew J. Salganik, 2017. "The Network Survival Method for Estimating Adult Mortality: Evidence From a Survey Experiment in Rwanda," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1503-1528, August.
    10. Soumaïla Ouedraogo, 2020. "Estimation of older adult mortality from imperfect data: A comparative review of methods using Burkina Faso censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(38), pages 1119-1154.
    11. repec:osf:socarx:qx2kn_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Michael Chasukwa & Augustine T Choko & Funny Muthema & Mathero M Nkhalamba & Jacob Saikolo & Malebogo Tlhajoane & Georges Reniers & Boniface Dulani & Stéphane Helleringer, 2022. "Collecting mortality data via mobile phone surveys: A non-inferiority randomized trial in Malawi," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-20, August.
    13. Helleringer, Stephane & Liu, Li & Chu, Yue & Rodrigues, Amabelia & Fisker, Ane Baerent, 2020. "Biases in Survey Estimates of Neonatal Mortality: Results from a Validation Study in Urban Areas of Guinea-Bissau," SocArXiv qx2kn, Center for Open Science.
    14. Henry V. Doctor & Ifeyinwa E. Udo, 2017. "Prime-age adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: examining trends in Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1990 and 2014," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 373-386, December.

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