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The twin deficits hypothesis in the SAARC countries: an empirical investigation

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  • Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran
  • Saroja Selvanathan
  • Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan

Abstract

Twin deficits hypothesis postulates that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country's budget deficit and its current account deficit. This paper empirically investigates the existence of this relationship in five South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries using time-series data for the period 1980–2012. The paper uses cointegration analysis, error correction modeling and Granger causality test under a vector autoregression framework. The results show that the direction of causality for the SAARC countries is mixed. The findings confirm that budget deficit causes current account deficit for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, whereas the reverse is true for India and Nepal. The direction of causality is found to be unidirectional from current account deficit to budget deficit in the short run for Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran & Saroja Selvanathan & Eliyathamby A. Selvanathan, 2016. "The twin deficits hypothesis in the SAARC countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 77-90, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:21:y:2016:i:1:p:77-90
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2015.1053592
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    1. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 579-601, September.
    2. Rajakaruna, Iwanthika & Suardi, Sandy, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between current account deficit and budget balance deficit in the South Asian region," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Howard Nicholas & Bram Nicholas, 2023. "An Alternative View of Sri Lanka's Debt Crisis," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(5), pages 1114-1135, September.
    4. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    5. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    6. Neeraj Nautiyal & Shweta Belwal & Rakesh Belwal, 2023. "Assessment, Interaction and the Transmission Process of Twin deficit Hypothesis: Fresh Evidence from India," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 11(2), pages 269-286, May.
    7. Dushni Weerakoon & Utsav Kumar & Roselle Dime, 2019. "Sri Lanka’s Macroeconomic Challenges: A Tale of Two Deficits," Working Papers id:13022, eSocialSciences.
    8. Ali, Amjad & Audi, Marc, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on the Current Account Balance in Developing Economies: A Panel Data Approach," MPRA Paper 118173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mindaugas Butkus & Janina Seputiene, 2018. "Growth Effect of Public Debt: The Role of Government Effectiveness and Trade Balance," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    10. Mumtaz, Kinza & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Dynamics of Twin Deficits in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 74592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.

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