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The real exchange rate and the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis in SAARC countries: an appraisal

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  • Khorshed Chowdhury

Abstract

This paper empirically tests the Balassa–Samuelson (B-S) productivity bias hypothesis in seven South Asian countries. We use auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling to develop a dynamic structure of the B-S hypothesis. Using annual data from Penn World Table Version 7.0 and the ‘bounds test’, we found no evidence of the B-S hypothesis in six sampled countries (Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) and the only exception was Bangladesh. We found that a 1% increase in labour productivity in Bangladesh relative to the US will lead to 2.5% appreciation in the real exchange rate of Bangladesh. The speed of adjustment towards equilibrium was found to be high, with short-run disequilibrium correcting by nearly 25% per annum in Bangladesh. The two endogenously determined structural breaks are found to be negative and statistically significant. These results add new insights to the time-series literature on the B-S hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Khorshed Chowdhury, 2012. "The real exchange rate and the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis in SAARC countries: an appraisal," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 52-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:17:y:2012:i:1:p:52-73
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2012.640000
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    1. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    2. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    2. Njindan Iyke, Bernard & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "An empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis: Evidence from eight middle-income countries in Africa," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 297-304.
    3. Maryam Ishaq & Ghulam Ghouse & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, 2022. "Another Prospective on Real Exchange Rate and the Traded Goods Prices: Revisiting Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, June.

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