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Global Climate Change, the Economy, and the Resurgence of Tropical Disease

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  • DOUGLAS GOLLIN
  • CHRISTIAN ZIMMERMANN

Abstract

How will global climate change affect the prevalence of tropical diseases? In general, warmer temperatures will expand the areas in which these diseases are endemic. However, if households can take actions to protect themselves from disease—such as purchasing bednets or insecticidal sprays—then economic factors may greatly mitigate the effects of climate change. These actions are costly, however, and particularly in poor countries, many households face borrowing constraints. A model of disease transmission combining the household's objectives and constraints shows that a temperature increase of 3°C will induce modest changes in disease prevalence and output. These effects can be mitigated by improvements in the efficacy of disease prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas Gollin & Christian Zimmermann, 2012. "Global Climate Change, the Economy, and the Resurgence of Tropical Disease," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 51-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:51-62
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2012.640868
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    1. Douglas Gollin & Christian Zimmermann, 2007. "Malaria: Disease Impacts and Long-Run Income Differences," Working papers 2007-30, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    2. Bosello, Francesco & Roson, Roberto & Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Human health," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 579-591, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcello Basili & Filippo Belloc, 2015. "How To Measure The Economic Impact Of Vector-Borne Diseases At Country Level," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 896-916, December.
    2. Marcello Basili & Filippo Belloc, 2012. "How to Measure the Economic Impact of Vector-Borne Diseases at a Country Level: An Assessment," Department of Economics University of Siena 648, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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