IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ginixx/v26y2000i2p153-178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Negotiating peace in Kosovo

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Efird
  • Ambassador Peter Galbraith
  • Jacek Kugler
  • Mark Abdollahian

Abstract

We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a second look at settlement opportunities. Russia was identified as the key mediator needed to reach a settlement We show that a European‐led settlement offered promising prospects for peace. Finally, we demonstrate that the settlement achieved after the air war was not much different than the settlement that could have been achieved at Rambouillet The settlement on Kosovo offers only short‐term stability. To gain long‐term stability, the Serbians must either agree to the existing ethnic makeup in Kosovo or allow it to be partitioned. Otherwise, conflict in this region will likely revive.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Efird & Ambassador Peter Galbraith & Jacek Kugler & Mark Abdollahian, 2000. "Negotiating peace in Kosovo," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 153-178, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:26:y:2000:i:2:p:153-178
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620008434964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03050620008434964
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/03050620008434964?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1997. "A decision making model: Its structure and form," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 235-266, May.
    2. Jon C. Pevehouse & Joshua S. Goldstein, 1999. "Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(4), pages 538-546, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark Abdollahian & Carole Alsharabati, 2003. "Modeling the Strategic Effects of Risk and Perceptions in Linkage Politics," Rationality and Society, , vol. 15(1), pages 113-135, February.
    2. Stefanie Bailer & Florian Weiler, 2015. "A political economy of positions in climate change negotiations: Economic, structural, domestic, and strategic explanations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 43-66, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Macgregor Perry & Hadi El-Amine, 2021. "Computational Efficiency in Multivariate Adversarial Risk Analysis Models," Papers 2110.12572, arXiv.org.
    2. Lewis W. Snider & Jason E. Strakes, 2006. "Modeling Middle East Security: A Formal Assessment of Regional Responses to the Iraq War," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(3), pages 211-226, July.
    3. Michael Perry & Hadi El-Amine, 2019. "Computational Efficiency in Multivariate Adversarial Risk Analysis Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 314-332, December.
    4. Jacek Kugler & Yi Feng, 1999. "Explaining and Modeling Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 139-146, April.
    5. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
    6. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 2011. "A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 65-87, February.
    7. Patrick T. Brandt & Michael Colaresi & John R. Freeman, 2008. "The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability, and Credibility," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(3), pages 343-374, June.
    8. Mark Abdollahian & Carole Alsharabati, 2003. "Modeling the Strategic Effects of Risk and Perceptions in Linkage Politics," Rationality and Society, , vol. 15(1), pages 113-135, February.
    9. Jason B Scholz & Gregory J Calbert & Glen A Smith, 2011. "Unravelling Bueno De Mesquita’s group decision model," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(4), pages 510-531, October.
    10. Ellen Lust-Okar & A.F.K. Organski, 2002. "Coalitions and Conflict: the Case of the Palestinian-Israeli Negotiations Over the West Bank," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 19(2), pages 23-58, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:26:y:2000:i:2:p:153-178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GINI20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.