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Unravelling Bueno De Mesquita’s group decision model

Author

Listed:
  • Jason B Scholz

    (Australian Government, Department of Defence, Edinburgh, Australia, jason.scholz@defence.gov.au)

  • Gregory J Calbert

    (Australian Government, Department of Defence, Edinburgh, Australia)

  • Glen A Smith

    (Australian Government, Department of Defence, Edinburgh, Australia)

Abstract

Political scientist Professor Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, has made significant claims for the predictive accuracy of his computational model of group decision making, receiving much popular press, including newspaper articles, books and a television documentary entitled ‘The New Nostradamus’. Despite these and many journal and conference publications related to the topic, no clear elucidation of the model exists in the open literature or can be found in a single place. We expose and present the model by careful navigation of the literature and illustrate the soundness of our interpretation by replicating De Mesquita’s own results. We also raise issues regarding sensitivity and convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason B Scholz & Gregory J Calbert & Glen A Smith, 2011. "Unravelling Bueno De Mesquita’s group decision model," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(4), pages 510-531, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jothpo:v:23:y:2011:i:4:p:510-531
    DOI: 10.1177/0951629811418142
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce & Lalman, David, 1986. "Reason and War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1113-1129, December.
    2. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1985. "The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 156-177, March.
    3. Hinich, Melvin J., 1977. "Equilibrium in spatial voting: The median voter result is an artifact," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 208-219, December.
    4. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1997. "A decision making model: Its structure and form," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 235-266, May.
    5. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1980. "An Expected Utility Theory of International Conflict," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 917-931, December.
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