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Modeling the Strategic Effects of Risk and Perceptions in Linkage Politics

Author

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  • Mark Abdollahian

    (Claremont Economic Policy Institute, Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, CA 91711, USA mabdollahian@hotmail.com)

  • Carole Alsharabati

    (Faculty of Business and Management, University of Balamand, P.O. Box 100, Tripoli, Lebanon carole.alsharabati@balamand.edu.lb)

Abstract

We develop a new linkage model for multiple issue politics and negotiations, one that extends previous single and multidimensional work by Bueno de Mesquita, Stokman, Morgan, and Morrow by explicitly capturing risk in a spatial multidimensional analysis. In order to address the critiques of previous linkage models as cooperatively based, we allow risk to vary simultaneously across issues, which yields non-convex indifference curves. Consequently, our model incorporates a new perceptive and conflictual component in multiple issue contexts. This approach allows the possibility of misjudgment and misperceptions in behavior. We show that linkage solutions in a political context may or may not be taken advantage of by the participants, nor do they need be Pareto optimal. Besides more accurately modeling the negotiation process, these valuable insights yield strategies for unilateral maximization of linkages not captured by previous linkage approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Abdollahian & Carole Alsharabati, 2003. "Modeling the Strategic Effects of Risk and Perceptions in Linkage Politics," Rationality and Society, , vol. 15(1), pages 113-135, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:15:y:2003:i:1:p:113-135
    DOI: 10.1177/1043463103015001074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morrow, James D., 1986. "A Spatial Model of International Conflict," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1131-1150, December.
    2. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1985. "The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 156-177, March.
    3. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1997. "A decision making model: Its structure and form," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 235-266, May.
    4. Mark Andrew Abdollahian & Jacek Kugler, 1997. "Unraveling the ties that divide: Russian political succession," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 267-281, May.
    5. Brian Efird & Ambassador Peter Galbraith & Jacek Kugler & Mark Abdollahian, 2000. "Negotiating peace in Kosovo," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 153-178, March.
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