IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v43y1999i2p178-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time, Power, and Democratic Transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Siddharth Swaminathan

    (Department of Politics and Policy, Claremont Graduate University)

Abstract

This study explores the impact of shifting power distributions among contending domestic groups on the dynamics of democratic transitions. A timing game is specified to demonstrate the vital influence exerted by relative power distributions on when an opposition is likely to mobilize and when an authoritarian leader is willing to negotiate. The model suggests that democratic transitions occur under conditions of relative power parity between the authoritarian government and the political opposition. The hypothesized relationship is validated empirically on 17 Latin American countries in the period from 1950 to 1990. The study also highlights the factors that affect the peaceful or conflictual nature of a transition process, such as the degree to which domestic opposition groups are dissatisfied with an authoritarian status quo, the risk propensities of political leaders, and the anticipated costs of domestic or civil conflict. The theoretical and empirical results of this study provide several significant insights and substantive implications for explaining as well as anticipating the timing of democratic transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Siddharth Swaminathan, 1999. "Time, Power, and Democratic Transitions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 178-191, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:2:p:178-191
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002799043002004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002799043002004
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022002799043002004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, 1985. "The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 156-177, March.
    2. Olson, Mancur, 1993. "Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 567-576, September.
    3. Gasiorowski, Mark J., 1995. "Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(4), pages 882-897, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berhanu Nega, 2011. "Short Changing the Value of Democracy for Economic Development in Africa," Forum for Social Economics, Springer;The Association for Social Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 313-334, October.
    2. Berhanu Nega, 2011. "Short Changing the Value of Democracy for Economic Development in Africa," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 313-334, January.
    3. Quan Li & Rafael Reuveny, 2007. "The Effects of Liberalism on the Terrestrial Environment," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(3), pages 219-238, July.
    4. Joel Guttman & Rafael Reuveny, 2014. "On revolt and endogenous economic policy in autocratic regimes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 27-52, April.
    5. Iamsiraroj, Sasi, 2016. "The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-133.
    6. Scott Gehlbach & Konstantin Sonin & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2010. "Businessman Candidates," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 718-736, July.
    7. Patrick Legros & Andrew F. Newman & Eugenio Proto, 2014. "Smithian Growth through Creative Organization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 796-811, December.
    8. Sobel, Andrew C., 2002. "State institutions, risk, and lending in global capital markets," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 725-752, December.
    9. Jian-Guang Shen, 2002. "Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach," Development and Comp Systems 0212002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gary Goertz & Tony Hak & Jan Dul, 2013. "Ceilings and Floors," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 42(1), pages 3-40, February.
    11. Mayshar, Joram & Moav, Omer & Neeman, Zvika, 2011. "Transparency, Appropriability and the Early State," CEPR Discussion Papers 8548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Maria Kravtsova & Aleksey Oshchepkov, 2019. "Market And Network Corruption," HSE Working papers WP BRP 209/EC/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    13. Apolte Thomas, 2018. "Sezessionsklauseln: Ein Instrument zur Förderung von Freiheit und Wohlstand?," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 366-382, July.
    14. Bilin Neyapti, 2018. "Income distribution and economic crises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 273-296, December.
    15. Fernando del Río, 2021. "The impact of rent seeking on social infrastructure and productivity," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 1741-1760, August.
    16. Richard Langlois, 2013. "The Institutional Revolution: A review essay," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 383-395, December.
    17. Andrea Asoni, 2008. "Protection Of Property Rights And Growth As Political Equilibria," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 953-987, December.
    18. Adamson, Jordan, 2020. "Political institutions, resources, and war: Theory and evidence from ancient Rome," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Tilman Altenburg, 2011. "Can Industrial Policy Work under Neopatrimonial Rule?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-041, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Williams, Stephen F., 2016. "Words, words, words: The remarkable perseverance of Magna Carta," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(S), pages 67-71.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:2:p:178-191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.