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Modeling Middle East Security: A Formal Assessment of Regional Responses to the Iraq War

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis W. Snider

    (Department of Politics and Policy School of Politics and Economics Claremont Graduate University Claremont, California, USA, Lewis.Snider@cgu.edu)

  • Jason E. Strakes

    (Department of Politics and Policy School of Politics and Economics Claremont Graduate University Claremont, California, USA)

Abstract

This investigation applies an expected utility (EU) analysis to assess the impact of the 2003 U.S. intervention in Iraq on the security perceptions of states in the Persian Gulf region, and to determine how shifts in the distribution of preferences among self-interested actors might influence the formation of coalitions in the Middle East. The outcome suggests that concerns for an incumbent leader's political survival may create a set of values that prevents states from forming coalitions in response to a commonly perceived threat. Of particular interest is the finding that while challengers such as Iran may not forge an anti-U.S. coalition, by maintaining its current position Tehran could foreclose bargaining opportunities that would result in an outcome more favorable to the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis W. Snider & Jason E. Strakes, 2006. "Modeling Middle East Security: A Formal Assessment of Regional Responses to the Iraq War," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(3), pages 211-226, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:23:y:2006:i:3:p:211-226
    DOI: 10.1080/07388940600837615
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 1997. "A decision making model: Its structure and form," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3-4), pages 235-266, May.
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