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Assessing Vulnerability to Financial Crisis: Evidence from Indonesia

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  • Lloyd Kenward

Abstract

This paper examines the view that the recent Indonesian crisis was largely unforeseen. The broadest macroeconomic indicators were of virtually no help in presaging the crisis; neither were high-frequency financial indicators. But warnings were there, just below the surface, in some of the macro indicators and in certain structural weaknesses that were long recognised as threats to financial stability. That said, none of these warnings suggested crisis of the magnitude that eventually occurred. The Indonesian experience indicates that macroeconomic stability should never be taken for granted. Signs of vulnerability to financial instability include: the degree of reliance on gross private capital inflows (taking into account maturities and the implications for rollovers); the extent of unhedged foreign exchange positions; and certain indirect indicators, such as policy slippages and key personnel changes. Finally, in a world of volatile capital flows, crisis will tend to occur before standard economic data suggest that crisis is imminent.

Suggested Citation

  • Lloyd Kenward, 1999. "Assessing Vulnerability to Financial Crisis: Evidence from Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 71-95.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:35:y:1999:i:3:p:71-95 DOI: 10.1080/00074919912331337697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Cole & Betty Slade, 1998. "Why Has Indonesia's Financial Crisis Been so Bad?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 61-66.
    2. Ross Mcleod, 2005. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 133-157.
    3. Mudrajad Kuncoro & Tri Widodo & Ross McLeod, 2009. "Survey of recent developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 151-176.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan Nedeljkovic & Gonzalo Varela & Michele Savini Zangrandi, 2015. "Indonesia Current Account Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22340, The World Bank.
    2. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, pages 32-72.
    4. Reiny IRIANA & Fredrik SJÖHOLM, 2002. "Indonesia'S Economic Crisis: Contagion And Fundamentals," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 40(2), pages 135-151, June.
    5. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.

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