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Trends and cycles in Euro area real GDP

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  • Leigh Drake
  • Terence Mills

Abstract

This article examines the time-series properties of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Euro area as a whole, both prior to and after the adoption of the Euro in January 1999. We employ the relatively recent 'optimal approximation' band pass filter developed by Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003) in order to identify a Eurozone business cycle. We also utilize two alternative assumptions regarding the behaviour of the trend component of Euro area real GDP. The empirical results suggest that the single currency experiment appears to have reduced trend growth in the Eurozone, both ex ante during the Maastricht nominal convergence phase, and also ex post, during the period 2001Q1 to 2006Q1. With respect to cyclical behaviour, we identify a very robust measure of the Eurozone business cycle in the post-1994 period which does not appear to be sensitive to the particular assumption made regarding the trend rate of growth of real GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Leigh Drake & Terence Mills, 2010. "Trends and cycles in Euro area real GDP," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1397-1401.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:11:p:1397-1401
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840701721372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
    2. Wynne, Mark A & Koo, Jahyeong, 2000. "Business Cycles under Monetary Union: A Comparison of the EU and US," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 347-374, August.
    3. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-132, January.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Verstegen, Loes & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2017. "Benefits of EMU Participation : Estimates using the Synthetic Control Method," Discussion Paper 2017-032, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "Half a century of empirical evidence of business cycles in OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 389-409.
    5. Verstegen, Loes & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2017. "Benefits of EMU Participation : Estimates using the Synthetic Control Method," Other publications TiSEM 505ae6bb-8e7a-4d71-9f44-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Florentin Kerschbaumer & Andreas Maschke, 2021. "The Implications of Monetary Union for Income Inequality: An Empirical Assessment," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(4), pages 537-574.

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