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Assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy: the perspective of Asian countries

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  • Evan Lau
  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

Abstract

This article investigates fiscal policy sustainability in 10 Asian countries by adopting a battery of unit root tests. Univariate unit root tests reveal that the fiscal stance in these countries follows a nonstationary process while the opposite conclusion was drawn for the same dataset using the commonly employed panel unit root techniques. By utilizing the series-specific panel unit-root test recently developed by Breuer et al. [2002, SURADF (Seemingly Unrelated Regression Augmented Dickey-Fuller)] that allows testing for the presence of nonstationarity within individual cross sections of the panel, we found that only cross sections four out of 10 countries in the panel are stationary. This means that fiscal deficits in most Asian countries are in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint and that the deficits are too large.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2009. "Assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy: the perspective of Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(15), pages 1939-1949.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:15:p:1939-1949
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840601131755
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Fiscal sustainability in BRICS countries: Evidence from asymmetric unit root tests augmented with Fourier fucntion," MPRA Paper 85501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Phiri, Andrew, 2019. "Fiscal sustainability in BRICS countries: evidence from asymmetric unit root test augmented with Fourier function," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 15(2).
    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "How sustainable are fiscal budgets in the Kingdom of Swaziland?," MPRA Paper 85149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tuck Cheong Tang & Evan Lau, 2008. "An Empirical Investigation On The Sustainability Of Balancing Item Of Balance Of Payment Accounts For Oic Member Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 31/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Soon, 2013. "The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(sup1), pages 377-394, June.
    6. Pui Sun Tam, 2013. "Finite-sample distribution of the augmented Dickey--Fuller test with lag optimization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3495-3511, August.
    7. Hui, Hon Chung, 2013. "Fiscal sustainability in Malaysia: a re-examination," MPRA Paper 80018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
    9. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.

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