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A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case

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  • M. T. Alguacil
  • V. Orts

Abstract

Historically, outward foreign direct investment has been contemplated as an alternative way of firms' internationalization. In this line, a relational substitution between exports and foreign direct investment would be expected. However, this seems to contrast with recent developments in the 'new trade theory' which show that the volume of trade and the emergence of multinational firms may be positively related one to the other. This paper investigates if some empirical evidence exists either supporting a substitution or a complementary relationship between both forms of internationalization. With this aim, an aggregate time series approach was adopted using quarterly aggregate data (seasonal adjusted) from the Spanish economy covering the period 1970.I-1992.III. A vector autoregressive model was employed for both multivariate cointegration analysis and Granger temporal causality testing. The strength and direction of causal relationships are shown through the dynamic variance decomposition and the impulse response technique. Once controlling for relative market size and prices, the results provide evidence of a positive long-term Granger causality going from foreign direct investment to exports, although not in the opposite direction.

Suggested Citation

  • M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2002. "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 119-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:34:y:2002:i:1:p:119-132
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840110046818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "An Empirical Assessment of the Factor Proportions Explanation of Multi-National Sales," NBER Working Papers 4583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off Between Proximity and Concentration," NBER Working Papers 4269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Verónica Cañal-Fernández & Julio Tascón Fernández, 2018. "The long run impact of foreign direct investment, exports, imports and GDP: evidence for Spain from an ARDL approach," Working Papers 0128, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D Mora, 2015. "On the employment effects of outward FDI: the case of Spain, 1995-2011," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(21), pages 2127-2141, May.
    3. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    4. Martin Falk & Mariya Hake, 2008. "A Panel Data Analysis on FDI and Exports," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34229, February.
    5. Sieds, 2012. "Complete Volume LXVI n.1 2012," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 66(1), pages 1-296.
    6. Nasir SELIMI, & Valdrina SELIMI, 2017. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate On Economic Growth In The Republic Of Macedonia," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 6(3), pages 1-8, august.
    7. Fr餩ric Laurin, 2012. "Trade and regional growth in Spain: panel cointegration in a small sample," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 435-447, February.
    8. Pradhan, Jaya Prakash, 2007. "How Do Indian Multinationals Affect Exports from Home Country?," MPRA Paper 19022, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Florentina Viorica GHEORGHE & Artur - Emilian SIMION, 2018. "The link between international trade flows of "Machinery and transport equipment" and foreign direct investment in Romania," Computational Methods in Social Sciences (CMSS), "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 42-54, June.
    10. Drogendijk, Rian & Martín Martín, Oscar, 2015. "Relevant dimensions and contextual weights of distance in international business decisions: Evidence from Spanish and Chinese outward FDI," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 133-147.
    11. Murman Budijanto & Bagus Rachman, 2010. "Foreign direct investment and one digit standard international trade classicification," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 2(3), pages 265-276, April.
    12. Henri Bezuidenhout & Wim Naudé, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the Southern African Development Community," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-88, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Kemal Türkcan, 2011. "Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Product Fragmentation in the Auto-Parts Industry," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 149-186, June.

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