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Returns to higher education in China – evidence from the 1999 higher education expansion using a fuzzy regression discontinuity

Author

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  • Fengyan Dai
  • Fang Cai
  • Yu Zhu

Abstract

China experienced a 47% expansion in higher education enrolment between 1998 and 1999 and a sixfold expansion in the decade to 2008. Using a fuzzy discontinuity in the months of births, we show that the 1999 expansion increased education by roughly 1 year around the cut-off point. Importantly, each additional year of university education induced by the expansion increases monthly earnings by 24%, whereas the corresponding OLS estimate is only 8%. Our findings are insensitive to alternative window widths, functional forms or the exclusion of the self-employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengyan Dai & Fang Cai & Yu Zhu, 2022. "Returns to higher education in China – evidence from the 1999 higher education expansion using a fuzzy regression discontinuity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 489-494, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:29:y:2022:i:6:p:489-494
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1871465
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Bin & Zhu, Yu, 2020. "Higher Education Expansion, the Hukou System, and Returns to Education in China," IZA Discussion Papers 12954, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Xiong, Weiyan & Yang, Jiale & Shen, Wenqin, 2022. "Higher education reform in China: A comprehensive review of policymaking, implementation, and outcomes since 1978," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Kang, Lili & Peng, Fei & Zhu, Yu, 2018. "Returns to higher education subjects and tiers in China - Evidence from the China Family Panel Studies," GLO Discussion Paper Series 238, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Dai, Li & Martins, Pedro S., 2024. "The Wage Effects of Polytechnic Degrees: Evidence from the 1999 China Higher Education Expansion," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1399, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Dai, Li & Martins, Pedro S., 2020. "Does vocational education pay off in China? Instrumental-variable quantile-regression evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 495, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Borsi, Mihály Tamás & Valerio Mendoza, Octasiano Miguel & Comim, Flavio, 2022. "Measuring the provincial supply of higher education institutions in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Dai, Li & Martins, Pedro S., 2024. "Does vocational education pay off in China? Evidence from city-level education supply shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Lin, Yuheng & Rambaccussing, Dooruj & Zhu, Yu, 2026. "Returns to college education of Chinese manufacturing employees: Who benefits more?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education

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