IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v34y2020i4d10.1007_s11269-020-02513-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Optimization Model for Improving Urban Water Supply System Fragility with Uncertain Streamflow

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Moudi

    (Chengdu University of Information Technology
    Sichuan University)

  • Zhongwen Xu

    (Sichuan University)

  • Liming Yao

    (Sichuan University)

  • He Yuan

    (Chengdu University of Information Technology
    Key Laboratory of Statistical Information Technology and Data Mining, State Statistics Bureau)

Abstract

With uncertainties in available water resources, the performance of water supply systems must be assessed and optimized to meet future sectoral demands. This study develops a dynamic model by evaluating fragility, which comprises three indexes: reliability, resiliency and vulnerability. With the aim of mitigating the negative stressors that lead to system collapse, dynamic multisectoral water supply optimization is conducted. To mitigate the negative impacts of water scarcities on system fragility over the long term, the performance of dynamic systems must be assessed. Optimization can shift the water supply system fragility (WSSF) to a robust or even an antifragile state. A real-world case study in Northeast China is conducted over ten-year intervals. Based on the optimized model, several managerial insights are given to the policy makers of the Tianjin Binhai New Area (TBHN) to cope with streamflow uncertainties. Finally, scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are conducted, and the results indicate that as water availability decreases, both reliability and vulnerability decrease, which further increases system fragility. In addition, the reliability of the system greatly contributed to system antifragility compared with the contributions of resilience and vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Moudi & Zhongwen Xu & Liming Yao & He Yuan, 2020. "Dynamic Optimization Model for Improving Urban Water Supply System Fragility with Uncertain Streamflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1465-1477, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02513-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02513-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-020-02513-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-020-02513-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xu Zongxue & K. Jinno & A. Kawamura & S. Takesaki & K. Ito, 1998. "Performance Risk Analysis for Fukuoka Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(1), pages 13-30, February.
    2. Terje Aven, 2015. "The Concept of Antifragility and its Implications for the Practice of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 476-483, March.
    3. Wenquan Gu & Dongguo Shao & Xuezhi Tan & Chen Shu & Zhen Wu, 2017. "Simulation and Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Operation in Inter-Basin Water Transfer System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3401-3412, September.
    4. Beibei Hu & Jun Zhou & Shiyuan Xu & Zhenlou Chen & Jun Wang & Dongqi Wang & Lei Wang & Jifa Guo & Weiqing Meng, 2013. "Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 873-886, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jordaan, D. & Kirsten, J., 2018. "Measuring the Fragility of Agribusiness Chains: A Case Study of the South African Lamb Chain," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277501, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Yaolong Liu & Guorui Feng & Ye Xue & Huaming Zhang & Ruoguang Wang, 2015. "Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2167-2183, February.
    3. Garcia-Perez, Alexeis & Cegarra-Navarro, Juan Gabriel & Sallos, Mark Paul & Martinez-Caro, Eva & Chinnaswamy, Anitha, 2023. "Resilience in healthcare systems: Cyber security and digital transformation," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Omar K. Pineda & Hyobin Kim & Carlos Gershenson, 2019. "A Novel Antifragility Measure Based on Satisfaction and Its Application to Random and Biological Boolean Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, May.
    5. Yuning Gao & Miao Yu, 2018. "Assessment of the economic impact of South-to-North Water Diversion Project on industrial sectors in Beijing," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Glendenning, C.J. & Vervoort, R.W., 2011. "Hydrological impacts of rainwater harvesting (RWH) in a case study catchment: The Arvari River, Rajasthan, India: Part 2. Catchment-scale impacts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(4), pages 715-730, February.
    7. Kim, Ungtae & Kaluarachchi, Jagath J. & Smakhtin, Vladimir U., 2008. "Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," IWMI Research Reports 53025, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Yanwei Li & Araz Taeihagh & Martin de Jong & Andreas Klinke, 2021. "Toward a Commonly Shared Public Policy Perspective for Analyzing Risk Coping Strategies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 519-532, March.
    9. Zhisong Chen & Lingling Pei, 2018. "Inter-Basin Water Transfer Green Supply Chain Equilibrium and Coordination under Social Welfare Maximization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-28, April.
    10. Rachunok, Benjamin & Nateghi, Roshanak, 2020. "The sensitivity of electric power infrastructure resilience to the spatial distribution of disaster impacts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. James Yoo & Thomas Frederick, 2017. "The varying impact of land subsidence and earth fissures on residential property values in Maricopa County – a quantile regression approach," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 204-216, May.
    12. João Vieira & Maria Conceição Cunha, 2017. "Nested Optimization Approach for the Capacity Expansion of Multiquality Water Supply Systems under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1381-1395, March.
    13. Biswajeet Pradhan & Mohammed Abokharima & Mustafa Jebur & Mahyat Tehrany, 2014. "Land subsidence susceptibility mapping at Kinta Valley (Malaysia) using the evidential belief function model in GIS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 1019-1042, September.
    14. Lijun Jiao & Ruimin Liu & Linfang Wang & Lin Li & Leiping Cao, 2021. "Evaluating Spatiotemporal Variations in the Impact of Inter-basin Water Transfer Projects in Water-receiving Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(15), pages 5409-5429, December.
    15. Yi-han Tang & Jie-feng Wu & Pei-yi Li & Li-juan Zhang & Xiao-hong Chen & Kai-rong Lin, 2019. "Quantifying Flood Frequency Modification Caused by Multi-Reservoir Regulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4451-4470, October.
    16. Reza Hajiabadi & Mahdi Zarghami, 2014. "Multi-Objective Reservoir Operation with Sediment Flushing; Case Study of Sefidrud Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5357-5376, December.
    17. Yong Yuan & Denghua Yan & Zhe Yuan & Jun Yin & Zhongnan Zhao, 2019. "Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin between 1961 to 2016, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-11, September.
    18. Z. Xu & K. Takeuchi & H. Ishidaira & X. Zhang, 2002. "Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 16(3), pages 239-261, June.
    19. Pedro Beça & António C. Rodrigues & João P. Nunes & Paulo Diogo & Babar Mujtaba, 2023. "Optimizing Reservoir Water Management in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3423-3437, July.
    20. S. Khajeh & Sh. Paimozd & M. Moghaddasi, 2017. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Changes on Hydrological Drought Based on Reservoir Performance Indices (Case Study: ZayandehRud River Basin, Iran)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2595-2610, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02513-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.