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Assessing the Impact of Climate Changes on Hydrological Drought Based on Reservoir Performance Indices (Case Study: ZayandehRud River Basin, Iran)

Author

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  • S. Khajeh

    (Arak University)

  • Sh. Paimozd

    (Arak University)

  • M. Moghaddasi

    (Arak University)

Abstract

We investigated the potential impacts of climate changes on hydrological drought of the Zayandehrud basin in Iran. The meteorological data was simulated using the LARS-WG model by output downscaling of HADCM3, INCM3 and NCCCSM from 2011 to 2040 under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. In order to estimate the runoff of the basin, the IHACRES model was calibrated and validated by data obtained from the Koohrang station during 1987–2007. The runoff was calculated for 2011–2040 period based on the mean of downscaling values in the IHACRES model. Then, the impact of climate changes on hydrological drought was studied by a probabilistic approach and MSUI index. The results revealed a drastic reduction in normal levels and also a significant increase in moderate, severe, and very severe drought levels in the future compared to the base period. The MSUI index represents a 42.32% reduction in the normal level based on the HADCM3 model under A1B scenario as well as an 86.8%increasein the severe drought. Furthermore, the HADCM3 model using the probabilistic approach showed a 73% reduction under the A2 scenario for normal condition and an increase of 20% for severe drought.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Khajeh & Sh. Paimozd & M. Moghaddasi, 2017. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Changes on Hydrological Drought Based on Reservoir Performance Indices (Case Study: ZayandehRud River Basin, Iran)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2595-2610, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1642-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1642-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xu Zongxue & K. Jinno & A. Kawamura & S. Takesaki & K. Ito, 1998. "Performance Risk Analysis for Fukuoka Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(1), pages 13-30, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kimia Naderi & Mahnoosh Moghaddasi & Ashkan shokri, 2022. "Drought Occurrence Probability Analysis Using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copula Function Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2865-2888, June.
    2. Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1399-1419, March.

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