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Composite Drought Indices of Monotonic Behaviour for Assessing Potential Impact of Climate Change to a Water Resources System

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  • Hung-Wei Tseng
  • Thian Gan
  • Pao-Shan Yu

Abstract

In this study, innovative drought indices are developed to accurately quantify the characteristics of drought events and their possible impacts to the water resources system of the Tsengwen Reservoir of Taiwan. We applied a monotonic test to three fundamental single drought indices, namely reliability, vulnerability and resilience, to demonstrate that indices showing non-monotonic behaviour can potentially give misleading information regarding the effects of drought to water resources systems. We further tested two newly proposed single drought indices, Vul system and Res weighted , to the study site, of which Vul system showed monotonic behaviour but Res weighted still behaved non-monotonically, even though in a suppressed manner. Next, we proposed and tested three composite drought indices, sustainability index (SI), drought risk index (DRI) and the water shortage index (WSI), of which only the WSI behaved monotonically. As a result, WSI was applied to investigate the potential impact of climate change to the future drought risk of the study site. On the basis of WSI values derived from runoffs simulated by the modified HBV and a reservoir operation (water balance) model driven with 18 sets of climate changes scenarios of IPCC ( 2007 ) statistically downscaled using the MarkSim GCM model, it seems that there is a 20 % chance that climate change impact could lead to more severe droughts in the study site. However, under the combined impact of climate change and the effect of sedimentation to the Tsengwen Reservoir, which could decrease its storage capacity by about 12 % (i.e., s = 0.88), it seems more severe drought impacts will increase to 2/3 of the 18 test cases. Lastly, a direct relationship was developed between WSI and the multifractal strength, which implies that runoff data with a stronger multifractal strength could lead to more severe droughts and vice versa. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Hung-Wei Tseng & Thian Gan & Pao-Shan Yu, 2015. "Composite Drought Indices of Monotonic Behaviour for Assessing Potential Impact of Climate Change to a Water Resources System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2341-2359, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:7:p:2341-2359
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-0945-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xu Zongxue & K. Jinno & A. Kawamura & S. Takesaki & K. Ito, 1998. "Performance Risk Analysis for Fukuoka Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(1), pages 13-30, February.
    2. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    3. Yongsheng Xu & Zong-Liang Yang, 2012. "A method to study the impact of climate change on variability of river flow: an example from the Guadalupe River in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 965-979, August.
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    1. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    2. João Vieira & Maria Conceição Cunha & Ricardo Luís, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Water Reservoir Systems Performance with the Implementation of Ecological Flows under Varying Climatic Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 5183-5205, December.
    3. Rong-Song Chen & Chan-Ming Tsai, 2017. "Development of an Evaluation System for Sustaining Reservoir Functions—A Case Study of Shiwen Reservoir in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-18, August.
    4. João Vieira & Maria Conceição Cunha, 2017. "Nested Optimization Approach for the Capacity Expansion of Multiquality Water Supply Systems under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1381-1395, March.

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