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Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Beganskas

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Temple University)

  • Kyle S. Young

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Physics, U.S. Coast Guard Academy)

  • Andrew T. Fisher

    (University of California Santa Cruz)

  • Ryan Harmon

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Colorado School of Mines)

  • Sacha Lozano

    (Resource Conservation District of Santa Cruz County)

Abstract

We quantified the distribution of hillslope runoff under different climate and land-use conditions in a coastal, mixed land-use basin, the Pajaro Valley Drainage Basin (PVDB), California, USA, in order to evaluate opportunities to improve groundwater supply. We developed dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios using high-resolution historic data and compared contemporary land use to pre-development land use under the different climate scenarios. Relative to pre-development conditions, urban and agricultural development resulted in more than twice as much simulated runoff generation, greater spatial variability in runoff, and less water available for recharge; these differences were most pronounced during the dry climate scenario. Runoff results were considered in terms of potential to support distributed stormwater collection linked to managed aquifer recharge (DSC-MAR), which routes excess hillslope runoff to sites where it can infiltrate and enhance groundwater recharge. In the PVDB, 10% of the annual groundwater deficit could be addressed by recharging 4.3% of basin-wide hillslope runoff generated during the normal scenario, and 10.0% and 1.5% of runoff during the dry and wet scenarios, respectively. Runoff simulation results were combined with an independent recharge suitability mapping analysis, showing that DSC-MAR could be effective in many parts of the PVDB under a range of climate conditions. These results highlight the importance of strategically locating DSC-MAR projects at the confluence of reliable supply and favorable subsurface hydrologic properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Beganskas & Kyle S. Young & Andrew T. Fisher & Ryan Harmon & Sacha Lozano, 2019. "Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1683-1698, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-019-2197-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-2197-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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