IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v37y2023i6d10.1007_s11269-022-03372-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Swati Maurya

    (Banaras Hindu University
    Banaras Hindu University)

  • Prashant K. Srivastava

    (Banaras Hindu University
    Banaras Hindu University)

  • Lu Zhuo

    (Cardiff University)

  • Aradhana Yaduvanshi

    (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay)

  • R. K. Mall

    (Banaras Hindu University)

Abstract

Climate change (precipitation and temperature) has significantly affected the hydrological regimes and future climate projection. Integration of climate model with physical based model is crucial for quantitative measurement of changes in surface water regime. For accurate estimation, modelling framework need finer scale resolution of climate model output. In this study, we examined the bias corrected, statistically downscale models drawn from the NASA, Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections–Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP5) over the study region. The rainfall and temperature projection output from the INMCM-4, MRI-CGCM3 and their ensemble mean performed well over the Mahi River basin (MRB), India. In this study, the climate data integrated with the SWAT model to analyse the potential impact of climate change on the discharge of MRB. The finding indicates that in the near future (2011–2040) projection of annual average streamflow increases by 76.74% based on the INMCM-4 outputs, 25% based on the MRI-CGCM3 outputs, and 24.53% based on the ensemble mean in comparison to the baseline period (1981–2010). Further, the modelling results of mean monthly streamflow in rainy season indicated that the lowest and highest streamflow changes will be ranging from about 631.07–2718.42 m3/s as observed by INMCM-4, 491.71–2938 m3/s observed by MRI-CGCM3, 513.02–2270.18 m3/s observed by ensemble mean, in the near future. Similarly, in the summer season, the lowest level of stream flow is found to be 158.27 m3/s observed by MRI-CGCM3, 193.38 m3/s (ensemble mean) and 258.53 m3/s (INMCM-4), respectively. Additionally, the streamflow trend was assessed by Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope method at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales. The future streamflow projection represented the ascending trend observed in south west and winter monsoon, while the descending trend was observed in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon under the INMCM-4, MRI-CGCM3, and ensemble mean. Results on projected precipitation, temperature and streamflow accretion would help to develop effective adaptation measures for reducing the impacts of climate change and to work out long-term water resource management plans in the river basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Swati Maurya & Prashant K. Srivastava & Lu Zhuo & Aradhana Yaduvanshi & R. K. Mall, 2023. "Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2675-2696, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03372-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03372-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03372-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03372-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Bermúdez & L. Cea & E. Van Uytven & P. Willems & J.F. Farfán & J. Puertas, 2020. "A Robust Method to Update Local River Inundation Maps Using Global Climate Model Output and Weather Typing Based Statistical Downscaling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4345-4362, November.
    2. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.
    3. Srivatsan V. Raghavan & Jina Hur & Shie-Yui Liong, 2018. "Evaluations of NASA NEX-GDDP data over Southeast Asia: present and future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 503-518, June.
    4. Adlul Islam & Alok Sikka & B. Saha & Anamika Singh, 2012. "Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1409-1424, April.
    5. Dinesh Singh Bhati & Swatantra Kumar Dubey & Devesh Sharma, 2021. "Application of Satellite-Based and Observed Precipitation Datasets for Hydrological Simulation in the Upper Mahi River Basin of Rajasthan, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Sumit Das & Gianvito Scaringi, 2021. "River flooding in a changing climate: rainfall-discharge trends, controlling factors, and susceptibility mapping for the Mahi catchment, Western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2439-2459, December.
    7. Noora Veijalainen & Tanja Dubrovin & Mika Marttunen & Bertel Vehviläinen, 2010. "Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Lake Regulation in the Vuoksi Watershed in Finland," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3437-3459, October.
    8. Santosh Thampi & Kolladi Raneesh & T. Surya, 2010. "Influence of Scale on SWAT Model Calibration for Streamflow in a River Basin in the Humid Tropics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4567-4578, December.
    9. Aradhana Yaduvanshi & Rajat K. Sharma & Sarat C. Kar & Anand K. Sinha, 2018. "Rainfall–runoff simulations of extreme monsoon rainfall events in a tropical river basin of India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 843-861, January.
    10. Bhumika Uniyal & Madan Jha & Arbind Verma, 2015. "Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4767-4785, October.
    11. Guangxing Ji & Zhizhu Lai & Haibin Xia & Hao Liu & Zheng Wang, 2021. "Future Runoff Variation and Flood Disaster Prediction of the Yellow River Basin Based on CA-Markov and SWAT," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. G. P. Tsakiris & D. P. Loucks, 2023. "Adaptive Water Resources Management Under Climate Change: An Introduction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2221-2233, May.
    2. Clara Estrela-Segrelles & Gabriel Gómez-Martínez & Miguel Ángel Pérez-Martín, 2023. "Climate Change Risks on Mediterranean River Ecosystems and Adaptation Measures (Spain)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2757-2770, May.
    3. Tayyeh, Halah Kadhim & Mohammed, Ruqayah, 2024. "Vulnerability and resilience of hydropower generation under climate change scenarios: Haditha dam reservoir case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).
    4. Koppuravuri Ramabrahmam & Venkata Reddy Keesara & Raghavan Srinivasan & Deva Pratap & Venkataramana Sridhar, 2023. "Climate Change Impact on Water Resources of Tank Cascade Systems in the Godavari Sub-Basin, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2853-2873, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Swatantra Kumar Dubey & JungJin Kim & Younggu Her & Devesh Sharma & Hanseok Jeong, 2023. "Hydroclimatic Impact Assessment Using the SWAT Model in India—State of the Art Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-40, November.
    2. Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1399-1419, March.
    3. Sri Lakshmi Sesha Vani Jayanthi & Venkata Reddy Keesara & Venkataramana Sridhar, 2022. "Prediction of Future Lake Water Availability Using SWAT and Support Vector Regression (SVR)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, June.
    4. Yiping Wu & Dongsheng Cheng & Wende Yan & Shuguang Liu & Wenhua Xiang & Ji Chen & Yueming Hu & Qian Wu, 2014. "Diagnosing Climate Change and Hydrological Responses in the Past Decades for a Minimally-disturbed Headwater Basin in South China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4385-4400, September.
    5. Ravish K. Rathee & Sudipta K. Mishra, 2024. "Climate change impact assessment on the water resources of the Upper Yamuna River Basin in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18477-18498, July.
    6. Xue-hua Zhao & Xu Chen, 2015. "Auto Regressive and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2913-2926, June.
    7. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    8. Prem B. Parajuli & Priyantha Jayakody & Ying Ouyang, 2018. "Evaluation of Using Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration Data in SWAT," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 985-996, February.
    9. Malte Grossmann & Ottfried Dietrich, 2012. "Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Assessment of Water Management Options for Regulated Wetlands Under Conditions of Climate Change: A Case Study from the Spreewald (Germany)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 2081-2108, May.
    10. Sanjeet Kumar & Ashok Mishra & Umesh Kumar Singh, 2023. "Assessment of Land Cover Changes and Climate Variability Effects on Catchment Hydrology Using a Physically Distributed Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Javier Senent-Aparicio & Sitian Liu & Julio Pérez-Sánchez & Adrián López-Ballesteros & Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, 2018. "Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    12. Thanh Le & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2013. "Evaluating the Utility of IPCC AR4 GCMs for Hydrological Application in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3227-3246, July.
    13. Carolina Natel Moura & Sílvio Luís Rafaeli Neto & Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos & Eder Alexandre Schatz Sá, 2020. "Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in a Well-preserved Upland Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2255-2267, June.
    14. Muhammad Umer Nadeem & Muhammad Naveed Anjum & Arslan Afzal & Muhammad Azam & Fiaz Hussain & Muhammad Usman & Muhammad Mashood Javaid & Muhammad Ahsan Mukhtar & Faizan Majeed, 2022. "Assessment of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products over the Himalayan Mountains of Pakistan, South Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-24, July.
    15. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    16. Zhe Yuan & Denghua Yan & Zhiyong Yang & Jijun Xu & Junjun Huo & Yanlai Zhou & Cheng Zhang, 2018. "Attribution assessment and projection of natural runoff change in the Yellow River Basin of China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 27-49, January.
    17. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. D. González-Zeas & L. Garrote & A. Iglesias & A. Granados & A. Chávez-Jiménez, 2015. "Hydrologic Determinants of Climate Change Impacts on Regulated Water Resources Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1933-1947, April.
    19. Yuechao Chen & Makoto Nakatsugawa, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover and Hydrological Processes Caused by Earthquakes in the Atsuma River Basin in Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-18, November.
    20. Junyu Qi & Sheng Li & Qiang Li & Zisheng Xing & Charles P.-A. Bourque & Fan-Rui Meng, 2016. "Assessing an Enhanced Version of SWAT on Water Quantity and Quality Simulation in Regions with Seasonal Snow Cover," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5021-5037, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03372-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.