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Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China

Author

Listed:
  • Ling Zhang

    (School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China)

  • Weipeng Li

    (School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
    Sichuan Provincial Engineering Laboratory of Monitoring and Control for Soil Erosion on Dry Valleys, Nanchong 637009, China)

  • Zhongsheng Chen

    (School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China)

  • Ruilin Hu

    (School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China)

  • Zhaoqi Yin

    (School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China)

  • Chanrong Qin

    (School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China)

  • Xueqi Li

    (School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China)

Abstract

The Jinghe River flows through the gully area of the Loess Plateau, where soil erosion is relatively severe. With the intensification of human activities, quantitatively evaluating the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff is of paramount importance. This study is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models, and quantitatively analyzes the effect of LUCC on runoff in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) through land use data from 2000 to 2020 and predicted scenarios for 2030 that encourage development, farmland protection, and ecological protection. The results show that reductions in farmland, grassland, and forest areas promote runoff, while increases in construction land similarly contribute to greater runoff. In all 2030 scenarios, the JRB is dominated by farmland and grassland. The mean annual runoff of LUCC under the three simulated prediction scenarios shows an increasing trend compared to LUCC in 2020, and the distribution of mean annual runoff depth is roughly the same. In addition, there is a strong interconnection between land use types and runoff in their dynamic relationship. Within the LUCC scenario, the decrease in farmland and forest land, along with the growth of construction land area promote runoff, while grassland plays a suppressive role in runoff. The results can offer a scientific foundation for improving soil erosion as well as optimizing land use patterns in the JRB.

Suggested Citation

  • Ling Zhang & Weipeng Li & Zhongsheng Chen & Ruilin Hu & Zhaoqi Yin & Chanrong Qin & Xueqi Li, 2025. "Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:3:p:626-:d:1613370
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.
    2. Shi, Peng & Li, Peng & Li, Zhanbin & Sun, Jingmei & Wang, Dejun & Min, Zhiqiang, 2022. "Effects of grass vegetation coverage and position on runoff and sediment yields on the slope of Loess Plateau, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    3. Xu Chen & Ruiguang Han & Ping Feng & Yongjie Wang, 2022. "Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1305-1337, January.
    4. Penny, Jessica & Ordens, Carlos M. & Barnett, Steve & Djordjević, Slobodan & Chen, Albert S., 2023. "Small-scale land use change modelling using transient groundwater levels and salinities as driving factors – An example from a sub-catchment of Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
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