The Spatiotemporal Evolution, Driving Mechanisms, and Future Climate Scenario-Based Projection of Soil Erosion in the Southwest China

Soil erosion is a significant environmental challenge in Southwest China, influencing regional ecological security and sustainability. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and future projections of soil erosion in Southwest China, with a focus on the period from 2000 to 2023. The RUSLE model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of soil erosion intensity over the 23-year period in Southwest China. The XGBoost and SHAP models were then employed to identify and interpret the driving factors behind soil erosion. These models revealed that precipitation, temperature, vegetation cover, and land use change were the primary drivers of soil erosion in the region. Finally, future soil erosion risks were projected for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under three climate scenarios (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585) based on the CMIP6 climate model. The results suggest that (1) the analysis of soil erosion in Southwest China from 2000 to 2023 reveals a significant decline in soil erosion intensity, with a 58.16% reduction in average erosion intensity, from 4.23 t·ha −1 ·yr −1 in 2000 to 1.77 t·ha −1 ·yr −1 in 2020. The spatial distribution of erosion in 2023 showed that 90.9% of the region experienced slight erosion, with only 4.56% of the area facing moderate to severe erosion. (2) Natural factors, particularly elevation and precipitation, are the primary drivers of soil erosion. Regions with higher elevations and greater precipitation are more susceptible to soil erosion, particularly on steep slopes with shallow soil layers. Human activities, including GDP growth, land use patterns, and population density, also significantly influence soil erosion dynamics, with higher GDP levels and increased urbanization correlating with elevated erosion risks. The interaction between natural and socioeconomic factors demonstrates a complex relationship in soil erosion processes. (3) By 2050, soil erosion intensity in southwestern China is projected to increase overall, with the most significant increase occurring under the SSP585 scenario. The spatial distribution of soil erosion will largely maintain current patterns, with high-erosion areas concentrated in the northwest and low-erosion areas in the southeast. Areas experiencing mild erosion are expected to decrease, while moderately eroded regions will expand. Projection results suggest that increased precipitation and extreme weather events will lead to the most severe soil erosion in high-altitude regions, particularly in western Sichuan. Our historical assessments and future forecasts suggest vegetation conservation, rainfall monitoring, and restoration of western Sichuan in southwest China are critical for future erosion control and regional ecological security in southwest China.