IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v109y2021i1d10.1007_s11069-021-04851-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future droughts in China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) under multi-spatial scales

Author

Listed:
  • Jincai Zhao

    (Henan Normal University)

  • Qianqian Liu

    (Nanjing Normal University
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Heli Lu

    (Ministry of Education
    Henan University)

  • Zheng Wang

    (Ministry of Education
    Henan University
    East China Normal University)

  • Ke Zhang

    (Henan University)

  • Pan Wang

    (Henan University)

Abstract

The future changes in water resources are essential for water resources management and agricultural production in the context of climate change. In this paper, by adopting five global models, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was utilized to character the dry conditions during 2020–2099. The Mann-Kendall test with trend-free prewhitening (TFPW-MK) was used to detect the change trends of SPEI and drought characteristics were predicted at both national and regional scale. Results showed that there is a large difference in the frequency of dry and wet occurrences at different time scales. The 12-month SPEI has a stable alternate between dry and wet occurrences, and a long duration of drought, which better describe the annual changes of drought influencing the streamflow and reservoirs. It is obvious that the available water resources decrease over time under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The TFPW-MK test indicated that southwest China have an upward trend in SPEI, while northwest, northeast and southeast China shows a drying trend. From a national perspective, water resources are relatively abundant in the future under the RCP 4.5 scenario, which is beneficial in terms of utilization of future water resources. In the long term, the northwest and northeast China have longer duration and stronger intensity of drought than those in other areas. In a high level of radiative forcing, the available water resources decrease obviously, and thus the occurrences of dry event increases. In addition, the abnormal dry events mainly appear after 2070, principally in GXR and LPR. These results can provide reference for drought warning in agricultural production, and meanwhile is beneficial for allocation and rational utilization of water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Jincai Zhao & Qianqian Liu & Heli Lu & Zheng Wang & Ke Zhang & Pan Wang, 2021. "Future droughts in China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) under multi-spatial scales," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 615-636, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04851-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04851-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04851-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-04851-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aiguo Dai, 2011. "Drought under global warming: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 45-65, January.
    2. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    3. D. Pai & Latha Sridhar & Pulak Guhathakurta & H. Hatwar, 2011. "District-wide drought climatology of the southwest monsoon season over India based on standardized precipitation index (SPI)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1797-1813, December.
    4. Hong Wu & Donald Wilhite, 2004. "An Operational Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Model for Nebraska, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, September.
    5. Yongxia Ding & Shouzhang Peng, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Trends and Attribution of Drought across China from 1901–2100," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    6. R. Sahoo & Dipanwita Dutta & M. Khanna & N. Kumar & S. Bandyopadhyay, 2015. "Drought assessment in the Dhar and Mewat Districts of India using meteorological, hydrological and remote-sensing derived indices," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 733-751, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Nianxiu & Lu, Qinqin & Fu, Guobin & Wang, Junneng & Fei, Kai & Gao, Liang, 2023. "Assessing the drought impact on sugarcane yield based on crop water requirements and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    2. Muhammet Yılmaz & Harun Alp & Fatih Tosunoğlu & Ömer Levend Aşıkoğlu & Ebru Eriş, 2022. "Impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological droughts for Upper Coruh Basin, Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1039-1063, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Omvir Singh & Divya Saini & Pankaj Bhardwaj, 2021. "Characterization of meteorological drought over a dryland ecosystem in north western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 785-826, October.
    2. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    3. P. Vijaya Kumar & Mohammed Osman & P. K. Mishra, 2019. "Development and application of a new drought severity index for categorizing drought-prone areas: a case study of undivided Andhra Pradesh state, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(2), pages 793-812, June.
    4. Manish Kumar Goyal & Ashutosh Sharma, 2016. "A fuzzy c-means approach regionalization for analysis of meteorological drought homogeneous regions in western India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1831-1847, December.
    5. Ashenafi Yimam Kassaye & Guangcheng Shao & Xiaojun Wang & Shiqing Wu, 2021. "Quantification of drought severity change in Ethiopia during 1952–2017," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 5096-5121, April.
    6. Getachew Tegegne & Assefa M. Melesse, 2020. "Multimodel Ensemble Projection of Hydro-climatic Extremes for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 3019-3035, July.
    7. Wang, Fei & Lai, Hexin & Li, Yanbin & Feng, Kai & Zhang, Zezhong & Tian, Qingqing & Zhu, Xiaomeng & Yang, Haibo, 2022. "Dynamic variation of meteorological drought and its relationships with agricultural drought across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    8. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    9. Araneda-Cabrera, Ronnie J. & Bermúdez, María & Puertas, Jerónimo, 2021. "Assessment of the performance of drought indices for explaining crop yield variability at the national scale: Methodological framework and application to Mozambique," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    10. Corwin, D.L. & Scudiero, E. & Zaccaria, D., 2022. "Modified ECa – ECe protocols for mapping soil salinity under micro-irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    11. Susanna Grasso & Pierluigi Claps & Daniele Ganora & Andrea Libertino, 2021. "A Web‐based Open‐source Geoinformation Tool for Regional Water Resources Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 675-687, January.
    12. Sergio Vicente-Serrano, 2007. "Evaluating the Impact of Drought Using Remote Sensing in a Mediterranean, Semi-arid Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(1), pages 173-208, January.
    13. -, 2015. "La economía del cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe: paradojas y desafíos del desarrollo sostenible," Libros y Documentos Institucionales, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 37310 edited by Cepal.
    14. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    15. Chen, Zheng & Wu, Yong-Ping & Feng, Guo-Lin & Qian, Zhong-Hua & Sun, Gui-Quan, 2021. "Effects of global warming on pattern dynamics of vegetation: Wuwei in China as a case," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 390(C).
    16. Dilayda Soylu Pekpostalci & Rifat Tur & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Mohammad Amin Vazifekhah Ghaffari & Dominika Dąbrowska & Vahid Nourani, 2023. "Drought Monitoring and Forecasting across Turkey: A Contemporary Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    17. Yaojie Yue & Jian Li & Xinyue Ye & Zhiqiang Wang & A-Xing Zhu & Jing-ai Wang, 2015. "An EPIC model-based vulnerability assessment of wheat subject to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1629-1652, September.
    18. Masupha, Teboho E. & Moeletsi, Mokhele E., 2020. "The use of Water Requirement Satisfaction Index for assessing agricultural drought on rain-fed maize, in the Luvuvhu River catchment, South Africa," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    19. Juan Quijano & Miguel Jaimes & Marco Torres & Eduardo Reinoso & Luisarturo Castellanos & Jesús Escamilla & Mario Ordaz, 2015. "Event-based approach for probabilistic agricultural drought risk assessment under rainfed conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1297-1318, March.
    20. Sara Tokhi Arab & Tofael Ahamed, 2023. "Near-real-time drought monitoring and assessment for vineyard production on a regional scale with standard precipitation and vegetation indices using Landsat and CHIRPS datasets," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 591-614, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:109:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04851-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.