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Stream Flow Forecasting of Poorly Gauged Mountainous Watershed by Least Square Support Vector Machine, Fuzzy Genetic Algorithm and M5 Model Tree Using Climatic Data from Nearby Station

Author

Listed:
  • Rana Muhammad Adnan

    (Huazhong University of Science & Technology)

  • Xiaohui Yuan

    (Huazhong University of Science & Technology)

  • Ozgur Kisi

    (Ilia State University)

  • Muhammad Adnan

    (Chinese Academy of Science)

  • Asif Mehmood

    (Huazhong University of Science & Technology)

Abstract

Forecasting stream flow is a very importance issue in water resources planning and management. The ability of three soft computing methods, least square support vector machine (LSSVM), fuzzy genetic algorithm (FGA) and M5 model tree (M5T), in forecasting daily and monthly stream flows of poorly gauged mountainous watershed using nearby hydro-meteorological data is investigated in the current study. In the first application, monthly stream flows of Hunza river are forecasted using local stream flow data of Hunza and precipitation and temperature data of nearby station. LSSVM provides slightly better forecasts than the FGA and M5T models. Stream flow and temperature inputs generally give better forecasts compared to other inputs. In the second application, daily stream flows of Hunza river are forecasted using local stream flow data of Hunza and precipitation and temperature data of nearby station. Better results are obtained from the models comprising only stream flow inputs. In general, a better accuracy is obtained from LSSVM models in relative to the FGA and M5T. The results indicate that the monthly and daily stream flows of Hunza can be accurately forecasted by using only nearby climatic data. In the third application, daily stream flows of Hunza river are forecasted using local stream flow and climatic data and the models’ accuracy is slightly increased in relative to the previous applications. LSSVM generally performs superior to the FGA and M5T in forecasting daily stream flow of Hunza river using local stream flow and climatic inputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Rana Muhammad Adnan & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Adnan & Asif Mehmood, 2018. "Stream Flow Forecasting of Poorly Gauged Mountainous Watershed by Least Square Support Vector Machine, Fuzzy Genetic Algorithm and M5 Model Tree Using Climatic Data from Nearby Station," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4469-4486, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2033-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2033-2
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    2. Sungwon Kim & Meysam Alizamir & Nam Won Kim & Ozgur Kisi, 2020. "Bayesian Model Averaging: A Unique Model Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy for Daily Streamflow Based on Different Antecedent Time Series," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Hui Zhang & Cunhua Pan & Yuanxin Wang & Min Xu & Fu Zhou & Xin Yang & Lou Zhu & Chao Zhao & Yangfan Song & Hongwei Chen, 2022. "Fault Diagnosis of Coal Mill Based on Kernel Extreme Learning Machine with Variational Model Feature Extraction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Sarmad Dashti Latif & Ali Najah Ahmed, 2023. "A review of deep learning and machine learning techniques for hydrological inflow forecasting," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 12189-12216, November.
    5. Ming Wei & Xue-yi You, 2022. "Monthly rainfall forecasting by a hybrid neural network of discrete wavelet transformation and deep learning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4003-4018, September.
    6. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Andrea Petroselli & Salim Heddam & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Ozgur Kisi, 2021. "Comparison of different methodologies for rainfall–runoff modeling: machine learning vs conceptual approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(3), pages 2987-3011, February.
    7. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Kulwinder Singh Parmar & Salim Heddam & Shamsuddin Shahid & Ozgur Kisi, 2021. "Suspended Sediment Modeling Using a Heuristic Regression Method Hybridized with Kmeans Clustering," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Jihong Qu & Kun Ren & Xiaoyu Shi, 2021. "Binary Grey Wolf Optimization-Regularized Extreme Learning Machine Wrapper Coupled with the Boruta Algorithm for Monthly Streamflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 1029-1045, February.
    10. Yahia Mutalib Tofiq & Sarmad Dashti Latif & Ali Najah Ahmed & Pavitra Kumar & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2022. "Optimized Model Inputs Selections for Enhancing River Streamflow Forecasting Accuracy Using Different Artificial Intelligence Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5999-6016, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuzzy logic approach; Genetic algorithm; Least square support vector machine; M5 model tree; Streamflow forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M5 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics

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