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River Stage Forecasting Using Wavelet Packet Decomposition and Machine Learning Models

Author

Listed:
  • Youngmin Seo

    (Kyungpook National University)

  • Sungwon Kim

    (Dongyang University)

  • Ozgur Kisi

    (Canik Basari University)

  • Vijay P. Singh

    (Texas A & M University)

  • Kamban Parasuraman

    (AIR Worldwide)

Abstract

This study develops and applies three hybrid models, including wavelet packet-artificial neural network (WPANN), wavelet packet-adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (WPANFIS) and wavelet packet-support vector machine (WPSVM), combining wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) and machine learning models, ANN, ANFIS and SVM models, for forecasting daily river stage and evaluates their performance. The WPANN, WPANFIS and WPSVM models using inputs decomposed by the WPD are found to produce higher efficiency based on statistical performance criteria than the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models using original inputs. Performance evaluation for various mother wavelets indicates that the model performance is dependent on mother wavelets and the WPD using Symmlet-10 and Coiflet-18 is more effective to enhance the efficiency of the conventional machine learning models than other mother wavelets. It is found that the WPANFIS model outperforms the WPANN and WPSVM models, and the WPANFIS14-coif18 model produces the best performance among all other models in terms of model efficiency. Therefore, the WPD can significantly enhance the accuracy of the conventional machine learning models, and the conjunction of the WPD and machine learning models can be an effective tool for forecasting daily river stage accurately .

Suggested Citation

  • Youngmin Seo & Sungwon Kim & Ozgur Kisi & Vijay P. Singh & Kamban Parasuraman, 2016. "River Stage Forecasting Using Wavelet Packet Decomposition and Machine Learning Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 4011-4035, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:11:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1409-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1409-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sungwon Kim & Jalal Shiri & Ozgur Kisi & Vijay Singh, 2013. "Estimating Daily Pan Evaporation Using Different Data-Driven Methods and Lag-Time Patterns," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(7), pages 2267-2286, May.
    2. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    3. Horng-I Hsieh & Tsung-Pei Lee & Tian-Shyug Lee, 2011. "A Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Regression Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting," International Journal of Business Administration, International Journal of Business Administration, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(2), pages 48-56, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mustafa Najat Asaad & Şule Eryürük & Kağan Eryürük, 2022. "Forecasting of Streamflow and Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Methods: A Case Study for Meram Stream in Konya, Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Adnan Bashir & Muhammad Ahmed Shehzad & Ijaz Hussain & Muhammad Ishaq Asif Rehmani & Sajjad Haider Bhatti, 2019. "Reservoir Inflow Prediction by Ensembling Wavelet and Bootstrap Techniques to Multiple Linear Regression Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5121-5136, December.
    4. Jin-Cheng Fu & Hsiao-Yun Huang & Jiun-Huei Jang & Pei-Hsun Huang, 2019. "River Stage Forecasting Using Multiple Additive Regression Trees," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4491-4507, October.
    5. Wen-chuan Wang & Yu-jin Du & Kwok-wing Chau & Dong-mei Xu & Chang-jun Liu & Qiang Ma, 2021. "An Ensemble Hybrid Forecasting Model for Annual Runoff Based on Sample Entropy, Secondary Decomposition, and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4695-4726, November.
    6. José-Luis Molina & Santiago Zazo & Ana-María Martín-Casado & María-Carmen Patino-Alonso, 2020. "Rivers’ Temporal Sustainability through the Evaluation of Predictive Runoff Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, February.

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