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Estimating Water System Performance Under Climate Change: Influence of the Management Strategy Modeling

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  • B. François
  • B. Hingray
  • J. Creutin
  • F. Hendrickx

Abstract

Water resource management models, used to anticipate global change impact on water system performance, are classically a crude representation of real water systems. This paper analyzes how the representation of the management model may influence estimates of changes in performance for a multiobjective water reservoir in the French Alps. We consider three management strategy representations named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). Changes in system performance are estimated for a multimodel multimember ensemble of hydroclimatic simulations under the SRES-A1B emission scenario. They are much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the strategy representation. The simple clear-sighted management representation has a quite similar effect as the far-sighted one supposedly closer to real world. The short-sighted representation misestimates the system performance, especially when inter-annual inflow variability is high. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • B. François & B. Hingray & J. Creutin & F. Hendrickx, 2015. "Estimating Water System Performance Under Climate Change: Influence of the Management Strategy Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4903-4918, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:13:p:4903-4918
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1097-5
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    1. Asmadi Ahmad & Ahmed El-Shafie & Siti Razali & Zawawi Mohamad, 2014. "Reservoir Optimization in Water Resources: a Review," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3391-3405, September.
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    4. Marie Minville & François Brissette & Stéphane Krau & Robert Leconte, 2009. "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Management of a Canadian Water-Resources System Exploited for Hydropower," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(14), pages 2965-2986, November.
    5. Wolfgang, Ove & Haugstad, Arne & Mo, Birger & Gjelsvik, Anders & Wangensteen, Ivar & Doorman, Gerard, 2009. "Hydro reservoir handling in Norway before and after deregulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1642-1651.
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    3. Ludovic Gaudard & Jeannette Gabbi & Andreas Bauder & Franco Romerio, 2016. "Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1325-1343, March.
    4. Baptiste François & Sara Martino & Lena S. Tøfte & Benoit Hingray & Birger Mo & Jean-Dominique Creutin, 2017. "Effects of Increased Wind Power Generation on Mid-Norway’s Energy Balance under Climate Change: A Market Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Gaudard, Ludovic & Avanzi, Francesco & De Michele, Carlo, 2018. "Seasonal aspects of the energy-water nexus: The case of a run-of-the-river hydropower plant," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 604-612.
    6. Baptiste François & Benoit Hingray & Marco Borga & Davide Zoccatelli & Casey Brown & Jean-Dominique Creutin, 2018. "Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.

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