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Evaluating the Economic Residual Life of Water Pipes Using the Proportional Hazards Model

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  • Suwan Park
  • Chang Choi
  • Jeong Kim
  • Cheol Bae

Abstract

This paper provides a method for evaluating the residual lives of water pipes using the proportional hazards model (PHM) based on the economically optimal replacement times of pipes. The survival times, which are used in the proportional hazards modeling process, were defined as the economically optimal replacement times of pipes. The break rate of an individual pipe is estimated using the General Pipe Break Model (GPBM). The optimal replacement time of a pipe is obtained using the equivalence relationship between the GPBM and threshold break rate. In order to use the GPBM effectively, the process of estimating the GPBM has been modified in this paper by utilizing additional break data for the time of installation and adjusting the value of the weighting factor (WF) in the GPBM. The residual lives and hazard ratios of the case study pipes, of which the cumulative number of breaks was at least one, were estimated using the estimated survivor function of the constructed PHM. The time-dependency of the pipe material covariate caused the hazard rate of the cast iron pipes to become lower than the hazard rate of the steel pipes after 19 years since installation. The methodology developed in this paper may help utilities identify important factors related to the economics of water pipe maintenance and; therefore more efficiently maintain their water pipes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Suwan Park & Chang Choi & Jeong Kim & Cheol Bae, 2010. "Evaluating the Economic Residual Life of Water Pipes Using the Proportional Hazards Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 3195-3217, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:12:p:3195-3217
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9602-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Symeon Christodoulou & Alexandra Deligianni, 2010. "A Neurofuzzy Decision Framework for the Management of Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 139-156, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sungsik Yoon & Young-Joo Lee & Hyung-Jo Jung, 2020. "Flow-Based Optimal System Design of Urban Water Transmission Network under Seismic Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 1971-1990, April.
    2. Qiang Xu & Qiuwen Chen & Jinfeng Ma & Koen Blanckaert & Zhonghua Wan, 2014. "Water Saving and Energy Reduction through Pressure Management in Urban Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3715-3726, September.
    3. Sungsik Yoon & Young-Joo Lee & Hyung-Jo Jung, 2021. "Flow-based seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network employing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1231-1254, January.
    4. Calvin Siew & Tiku Tanyimboh, 2012. "Pressure-Dependent EPANET Extension," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1477-1498, April.
    5. Michalis Fragiadakis & Symeon Christodoulou & Dimitrios Vamvatsikos, 2013. "Reliability Assessment of Urban Water Distribution Networks Under Seismic Loads," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3739-3764, August.
    6. Chrianna I Bharat & Kevin Murray & Edward Cripps & Melinda R Hodkiewicz, 2018. "Methods for displaying and calibration of Cox proportional hazards models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(1), pages 105-115, February.

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