IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v105y2021i2d10.1007_s11069-020-04352-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Flow-based seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network employing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sungsik Yoon

    (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)

  • Young-Joo Lee

    (Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology)

  • Hyung-Jo Jung

    (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)

Abstract

In this study, a seismic risk assessment model was proposed to evaluate the seismic reliability of a water transmission network. The proposed risk assessment model involves earthquake generation and hydraulic analysis modules. To consider a comprehensive approach, the numerical simulation strategy includes probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, buried pipeline deterioration, numerical modeling of network facilities, and the interdependency between pumping plant and substation. For this purpose, a flow-based MATLAB code has been developed that enables iterative hydraulic analysis using EPANET software. For numerical simulation, the epicenter and earthquake magnitudes were determined based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, and a real water transmission network in South Korea was constructed. From the numerical results, two performance indicators (system serviceability and nodal serviceability) and four mean normal status ratios of facilities were adopted to evaluate the network performance. In addition, a component importance measure of facilities in a network system was calculated by introducing a reduction factor. The numerical results using the proposed flow-based model show that the system performance is affected by buried pipeline deterioration and network interdependency, as well as the location and magnitude of the input earthquake. It is thus concluded that the seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network should be performed using a model with a comprehensive approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Sungsik Yoon & Young-Joo Lee & Hyung-Jo Jung, 2021. "Flow-based seismic risk assessment of a water transmission network employing probabilistic seismic hazard analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1231-1254, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04352-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04352-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04352-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04352-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan Shi & Shumiao Jin & Klaus Seeland, 2015. "Modeling business interruption impacts due to disrupted highway network of Shifang by the Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1731-1745, January.
    2. Vladimir Sokolov & Friedemann Wenzel, 2014. "On the modeling of ground-motion field for assessment of multiple-location hazard, damage, and loss: example of estimation of electric network performance during scenario earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1555-1575, December.
    3. A. Golara, 2014. "Erratum to: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of interconnected infrastructure: a case of Iranian high-pressure gas supply system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 1141-1142, September.
    4. Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez & Daniela Zuloaga & Sebastian Henao & Gabriel A. Bernal & Omar-Darío Cardona, 2018. "Probabilistic assessment of annual repair rates in pipelines and of direct economic losses in water and sewage networks: application to Manizales, Colombia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 5-24, September.
    5. Adachi, Takao & Ellingwood, Bruce R., 2008. "Serviceability of earthquake-damaged water systems: Effects of electrical power availability and power backup systems on system vulnerability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 78-88.
    6. Suwan Park & Chang Choi & Jeong Kim & Cheol Bae, 2010. "Evaluating the Economic Residual Life of Water Pipes Using the Proportional Hazards Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 3195-3217, September.
    7. Nisrine Makhoul & Christopher Navarro & Jong Lee, 2018. "Earthquake damage estimations of Byblos potable water network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 627-659, September.
    8. A. Golara, 2014. "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of interconnected infrastructure: a case of Iranian high-pressure gas supply system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 567-577, September.
    9. Kang, Won-Hee & Song, Junho & Gardoni, Paolo, 2008. "Matrix-based system reliability method and applications to bridge networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(11), pages 1584-1593.
    10. Wang, Yu & Au, Siu-Kui, 2009. "Spatial distribution of water supply reliability and critical links of water supply to crucial water consumers under an earthquake," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 534-541.
    11. Won-Hee Kang & Young-Joo Lee & Chunwei Zhang, 2017. "Computer-Aided Analysis of Flow in Water Pipe Networks after a Seismic Event," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-14, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guidotti, Roberto & Gardoni, Paolo & Rosenheim, Nathanael, 2019. "Integration of physical infrastructure and social systems in communities’ reliability and resilience analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 476-492.
    2. Kim, Youngsuk & Kang, Won-Hee, 2013. "Network reliability analysis of complex systems using a non-simulation-based method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 80-88.
    3. Salimi, Mohammad & Faramarzi, Davoud & Hosseinian, Seyed Hossein & Gharehpetian, Gevork B., 2020. "Replacement of natural gas with electricity to improve seismic service resilience: An application to domestic energy utilities in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Morshedi, Mohamad Ali & Kashani, Hamed, 2022. "Assessment of vulnerability reduction policies: Integration of economic and cognitive models of decision-making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    5. Li, Jian & Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo & Chen, Changkun & Shi, Congling, 2016. "Connectivity reliability and topological controllability of infrastructure networks: A comparative assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 24-33.
    6. Cavalieri, Francesco, 2020. "Seismic risk assessment of natural gas networks with steady-state flow computation," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    7. Saeid Yazdani & Mohd Johari Mohd Yusof & Mohammad Mehdi Azizi & Abang Abdullah Abang Ali, 2015. "Effects of Lack of Coordination in the Context of Urban Infrastructure Provision: A Multiple Embedded Case Study in Iran," International Journal of Management Sciences, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 6(6), pages 291-303.
    8. Michalis Fragiadakis & Symeon Christodoulou & Dimitrios Vamvatsikos, 2013. "Reliability Assessment of Urban Water Distribution Networks Under Seismic Loads," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3739-3764, August.
    9. A. A. Malinowska, 2016. "Reliability of methods used for pipeline hazard evaluation in view of potential risk factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 715-728, August.
    10. Yuchen Hu & Harvey Cutler & Yihua Mao, 2023. "Economic Loss Assessment for Losses Due to Earthquake under an Integrated Building, Lifeline, and Transportation Nexus: A Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Shelby County, TN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-24, May.
    11. Dehghani, Nariman L. & Zamanian, Soroush & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2021. "Adaptive network reliability analysis: Methodology and applications to power grid," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Byun, Ji-Eun & Noh, Hee-Min & Song, Junho, 2017. "Reliability growth analysis of k-out-of-N systems using matrix-based system reliability method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 410-421.
    13. Na, Ung Jin & Shinozuka, Masanobu, 2009. "Simulation-based seismic loss estimation of seaport transportation system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 722-731.
    14. Mahsa Ghandi & Abbas Roozbahani, 2020. "Risk Management of Drinking Water Supply in Critical Conditions Using Fuzzy PROMETHEE V Technique," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(2), pages 595-615, January.
    15. George-Williams, Hindolo & Patelli, Edoardo, 2017. "Efficient availability assessment of reconfigurable multi-state systems with interdependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 431-444.
    16. Monfared, M.A.S. & Rezazadeh, Masoumeh & Alipour, Zohreh, 2022. "Road networks reliability estimations and optimizations: A Bi-directional bottom-up, top-down approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    17. Wang, Yu & Au, Siu-Kui, 2009. "Spatial distribution of water supply reliability and critical links of water supply to crucial water consumers under an earthquake," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 534-541.
    18. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    19. Roberto Benato & Antonio Chiarelli & Sebastian Dambone Sessa, 2021. "Reliability Assessment of a Multi-State HVDC System by Combining Markov and Matrix-Based Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-13, May.
    20. Chrianna I Bharat & Kevin Murray & Edward Cripps & Melinda R Hodkiewicz, 2018. "Methods for displaying and calibration of Cox proportional hazards models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 232(1), pages 105-115, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04352-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.