IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/trosos/v18y2024i1d10.1007_s12626-024-00156-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Travel Spread Infection?—Effects of Social Stirring Simulated on SEIRS Circuit Grid

Author

Listed:
  • Yukio Ohsawa

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Sae Kondo

    (Mie University)

  • Tomohide Maekawa

    (Trust Architecture Inc, 509, Louis Marble Nogizaka)

Abstract

Previous models of the spread of viral infection could not explain the potential risk of non-infectious travelers and exceptional events, such as the reduction in infected cases with an increase in travelers. In this study, we provide an explanation for improving the model by considering two factors. First, we consider the travel of susceptible (S), exposed (E), and recovered (R) individuals who may become infected and infect others in the destination region in the near future, as well as infectious (I). Second, people living in a region and those moving from other regions are treated as separate but interacting groups to consider the potential influence of movement before infection. We show the results of the simulation of infection spread in a country where individuals travel across regions and the government chooses regions to vaccinate with priority. As a result, vaccinating people in regions with larger populations better suppresses the spread of infection, which turns out to be a part of a general law that the same quantity of vaccines can work efficiently by maximizing the conditional entropy Hc of the distribution of vaccines to regions. This strategy outperformed vaccination in regions with a larger effective regeneration number. These results, understandable through the new concept of social stirring, correspond to the fact that travel activities across regional borders may even suppress the spread of vaccination if processed at a sufficiently high pace. This effect can be further reinforced if vaccines are equally distributed to local regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yukio Ohsawa & Sae Kondo & Tomohide Maekawa, 2024. "Does Travel Spread Infection?—Effects of Social Stirring Simulated on SEIRS Circuit Grid," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:trosos:v:18:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s12626-024-00156-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s12626-024-00156-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12626-024-00156-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12626-024-00156-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Karaivanov, 2020. "A social network model of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-33, October.
    2. Rabih Ghostine & Mohamad Gharamti & Sally Hassrouny & Ibrahim Hoteit, 2021. "An Extended SEIR Model with Vaccination for Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Serina Chang & Emma Pierson & Pang Wei Koh & Jaline Gerardin & Beth Redbird & David Grusky & Jure Leskovec, 2021. "Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7840), pages 82-87, January.
    4. Bin Zhou & Tran Thi Nhu Thao & Donata Hoffmann & Adriano Taddeo & Nadine Ebert & Fabien Labroussaa & Anne Pohlmann & Jacqueline King & Silvio Steiner & Jenna N. Kelly & Jasmine Portmann & Nico Joel Ha, 2021. "SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G change enhances replication and transmission," Nature, Nature, vol. 592(7852), pages 122-127, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pongou, Roland & Tchuente, Guy & Tondji, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Optimally Targeting Interventions in Networks during a Pandemic: Theory and Evidence from the Networks of Nursing Homes in the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 957, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Roland Pongou & Guy Tchuente & Jean-Baptiste Tondji, 2021. "Optimally Targeting Interventions in Networks during a Pandemic: Theory and Evidence from the Networks of Nursing Homes in the United States," Papers 2110.10230, arXiv.org.
    3. Roland Pongou & Guy Tchuente & Jean-Baptiste Tondji, 2023. "Optimal interventions in networks during a pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 847-883, April.
    4. Eugenio Valdano & Davide Colombi & Chiara Poletto & Vittoria Colizza, 2023. "Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2022. "Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    6. Pirayesh, Amir & Asadaraghi, Alireza & Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Siadat, Ali & Battaïa, Olga, 2025. "A dynamic optimization model for vaccine allocation with age considerations: A study inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    7. Talal Daghriri & Michael Proctor & Sarah Matthews, 2022. "Evolution of Select Epidemiological Modeling and the Rise of Population Sentiment Analysis: A Literature Review and COVID-19 Sentiment Illustration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Lu, Xuefei & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2023. "Global sensitivity analysis in epidemiological modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 9-24.
    9. Li Wang & Markus H. Kainulainen & Nannan Jiang & Han Di & Gaston Bonenfant & Lisa Mills & Michael Currier & Punya Shrivastava-Ranjan & Brenda M. Calderon & Mili Sheth & Brian R. Mann & Jaber Hossain &, 2022. "Differential neutralization and inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 variants by antibodies elicited by COVID-19 mRNA vaccines," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    10. Yoon, Jisung & Park, Jinseo & Yun, Jinhyuk & Jung, Woo-Sung, 2023. "Quantifying knowledge synchronization with the network-driven approach," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).
    11. Baudains, Peter & Kalatian, Arash & Choudhury, Charisma F. & Manley, Ed, 2024. "Social inequality and the changing patterns of travel in the pandemic and post-pandemic era," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. X. Angela Yao & Andrew Crooks & Bin Jiang & Jukka Krisp & Xintao Liu & Haosheng Huang, 2023. "An overview of urban analytical approaches to combating the Covid-19 pandemic," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1133-1143, June.
    13. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," Staff Report 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. X. Tong & R. P. McNamara & M. J. Avendaño & E. F. Serrano & T. García-Salum & C. Pardo-Roa & H. L. Bertera & T. M. Chicz & J. Levican & E. Poblete & E. Salinas & A. Muñoz & A. Riquelme & G. Alter & R., 2023. "Waning and boosting of antibody Fc-effector functions upon SARS-CoV-2 vaccination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Till Baldenius & Nicolas Koch & Hannah Klauber & Nadja Klein, 2023. "Heat increases experienced racial segregation in the United States," Papers 2306.13772, arXiv.org.
    16. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "Collective infectivity of the pandemic over time and association with vaccine coverage and economic development," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    17. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    18. Wan, Jinming & Ichinose, Genki & Small, Michael & Sayama, Hiroki & Moreno, Yamir & Cheng, Changqing, 2022. "Multilayer networks with higher-order interaction reveal the impact of collective behavior on epidemic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    19. Wang, Yupeng & Shimokawa, Satoru, 2024. "A trade-off between lives and the economy? Subsidizing dining out under the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Hasan Alp Boz & Mohsen Bahrami & Selim Balcisoy & Burcin Bozkaya & Nina Mazar & Aaron Nichols & Alex Pentland, 2024. "Investigating neighborhood adaptability using mobility networks: a case study of the COVID-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:trosos:v:18:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s12626-024-00156-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.