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Internal and external exchange rate equilibrium in a cointegration framework. An application to the Spanish peseta

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Alberola

    () (Bank of Spain, Alcalá 50, 28012 Madrid, Spain World Bank, 1818 W Street NW, Washington DC 20433, USA)

  • Humberto López

    () (Bank of Spain, Alcalá 50, 28012 Madrid, Spain World Bank, 1818 W Street NW, Washington DC 20433, USA)

Abstract

A simple cointegration methodology is used to compute the equilibrium real exchange rate for the peseta. The stock of foreign assets and the evolution of sectoral prices are considered to be the fundamentals for the real exchange rate. After testing for cointegration, we proceed to decompose the series into a permanent and a transitory component, following the method devised by Gonzalo and Granger. The permanent component of the real exchange rate corresponds to its (time-varying) equilibrium value, and the deviation of the actual real exchange rate from this equilibrium value gives an estimation of the degree of misalignment of the real exchange rate. By the end of the sample (1998:1), the peseta is estimated to be undervalued around 6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola & Humberto López, 2001. "Internal and external exchange rate equilibrium in a cointegration framework. An application to the Spanish peseta," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 23-40.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:specre:v:3:y:2001:i:1:p:23-40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Gomes, 2016. "On the impact of dollar movements on oil currencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Hugo Oliveros C. & Carlos Huertas C., 2003. "Desequilibrios nominales y reales del tipo de cambio en Colombia," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 21(43), pages 32-65, Junio.
    3. Alper, Ahmet Murat & Civcir, İrfan, 2012. "Can overvaluation prelude to crisis and harm growth in Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-131.
    4. Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Estimating the half-life of theoretically founded real exchange rate misalignments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6411, The World Bank.
    5. Lopez, Humberto & Molina, Luis & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2007. "Remittances and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4213, The World Bank.
    6. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    7. César Calderón M., 2004. "Un Análisis del Comportamiento del Tipo de Cambio Real en Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(1), pages 5-30, April.
    8. Hugo Oliveros & Carlos Huertas, 2002. "Desequilibrios Nominales y Reales del Tipo de Cambio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 220, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Alberola, Enrique & Lopez, Humberto & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Tango with the Gringo: the hard peg and real misalignment in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3322, The World Bank.
    10. Pilbeam, K. & Litsions, I., 2015. "The long-run determination of the real exchange rate. Evidence from an intertemporal modelling framework using the dollar-pound exchange rate," Working Papers 15/19, Department of Economics, City University London.
    11. Garcimartin, Carlos & Kvedaras, Virmantas & Rivas, Luis, 2016. "Business cycles in a balance-of-payments constrained growth framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 120-132.
    12. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:32-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:ath:journl:tome:30:v:2:y:2013:i:30:p:101-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. I. Paya & A. Duarte & K. Holden, 2003. "On the equilibrium value of the peseta," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 317-335.
    15. Megumi Kubota, "undated". "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium exchange rates; cointegration; Balassa-Samuelson; current account;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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