Economic and Natural Factors of Spatial Heterogeneity of Carbon Emissions in Russian Forests in the 2010s

Increasing the net carbon sequestration of forests is the only way for Russia to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In this context, along with measures to increase the area and quality of forest stands, ways to reduce carbon emissions from human activities and natural disturbances have become important. Using regression models of panel data, the article analyzes the spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions in Russian forests in 2009–2021, measured by tools of the Global Forest Watch project, as a function of economic (logging volumes, government spending on forestry, forest protection and forest fire activities) and natural (the scale of forest fires and outbreaks of mass reproduction of insect pests) factors. Logging and forest fires are expected to have the greatest impact on carbon losses from forests, while the costs of government functions in forestry affairs have almost no response in reducing carbon emissions. Thus, in fact, the goal of forest conservation through public investment in relevant activities has not yet been achieved. The resulting set of regression models can be used to predict the dynamics of regional effects of carbon losses by forests with changes in logging volumes and various trajectories of forest fire activity dynamics. Such an analysis will be critical to formulate regional plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, taking into account the maximum use of the potential for increasing the net carbon sequestration of forests.