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Predicting general election outcomes: campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England

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  • Ron Johnston

    (University of Bristol)

  • Todd Hartman

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Charles Pattie

    (University of Sheffield)

Abstract

There is a growing literature suggesting that the result for each constituency at British general elections can be predicted using ‘citizen forecasts’ obtained through voter surveys. This may be true for the majority of constituencies where the result at previous contests was a substantial majority for one party’s candidates: few ‘safe seats’ change hands. But is it true in the marginal constituencies, where elections are won and lost? Analysis of such ‘citizen forecast’ data for the Labour-Conservative marginal constituencies in 2017 indicates not. Although respondents were aware of the seats’ relative marginality and of general trends in party support during the campaign, they could not separate out those that were eventually lost by each party from those that were won again, even in seats where the elected party won comfortably.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Johnston & Todd Hartman & Charles Pattie, 2019. "Predicting general election outcomes: campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1369-1389, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:53:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-018-0819-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-018-0819-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leiter, Debra & Murr, Andreas & Rascón Ramírez, Ericka & Stegmaier, Mary, 2018. "Social networks and citizen election forecasting: The more friends the better," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 235-248.
    2. Stiers, Dieter & Dassonneville, Ruth, 2018. "Affect versus cognition: Wishful thinking on election day," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 199-215.
    3. Matthew Blackwell & James Honaker & Gary King, 2017. "A Unified Approach to Measurement Error and Missing Data: Overview and Applications," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 46(3), pages 303-341, August.
    4. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Skalaban, Andrew, 1989. "Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 146-153, January.
    5. Pattie, C. J. & Johnston, R. J., 2003. "Hanging on the Telephone? Doorstep and Telephone Canvassing at the British General Election of 1997," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 303-322, April.
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    1. Anurag Barthwal & Mamta Bhatt & Shwetank Avikal & Chandra Prakash, 2025. "Machine learning-based prediction models for electoral outcomes in India: a comparative analysis of exit polls from 2014–2021," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 313-338, February.

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