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China’s regional drought risk under climate change: a two-stage process assessment approach

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  • Xiao-Chen Yuan
  • Bao-Jun Tang
  • Yi-Ming Wei
  • Xiao-Jie Liang
  • Hao Yu
  • Ju-Liang Jin

Abstract

China is predicted to have higher drought risk with global warming, and for better preparedness and mitigation, it is necessary to find out the risky areas and reveal the essential causes. This paper develops an integrated index of drought risk following the pressure–state–impact process in which drought hazard and vulnerability are reflected by two stages of pressure–state and state–impact, respectively. Accordingly, the network structure data envelopment analysis model is employed to calculate the degree of drought risk, hazard and vulnerability. Then, this study evaluates 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China, and the tempospatial patterns of regional drought hazard, vulnerability and risk during 2006–2011 are presented. Moreover, the determinants of risk in different parts of China are also investigated. The results suggest that the northeast and southwest of China are more potential to be affected by drought due to the high degree of hazard and vulnerability. The dominant factor affecting drought risk in the northwest is vulnerability, because the hazard in this part is comparatively low. However, although the drought situation is severe in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southeastern coastal areas, the strong resilience to drought makes the risk remain low. It is concluded that the effective way to decrease drought risk is to promote the level of water efficiency and agricultural irrigation, so that low sensitivity and high adaptive capacity would contribute to vulnerability reduction. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-Chen Yuan & Bao-Jun Tang & Yi-Ming Wei & Xiao-Jie Liang & Hao Yu & Ju-Liang Jin, 2015. "China’s regional drought risk under climate change: a two-stage process assessment approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 667-684, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:1:p:667-684
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1514-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Kao, Chiang, 2019. "Inefficiency identification for closed series production systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(2), pages 599-607.
    2. Hao Wu & Hui Qian & Jie Chen & Chenchen Huo, 2017. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in the Guanzhong Plain, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1557-1574, March.
    3. Huili Chen & Zhongyao Liang & Yong Liu & Qingsong Jiang & Shuguang Xie, 2018. "Effects of drought and flood on crop production in China across 1949–2015: spatial heterogeneity analysis with Bayesian hierarchical modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 525-541, May.

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