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Adapting project management method and ANFIS strategy for variables selection and analyzing wind turbine wake effect

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  • Dalibor Petković
  • Siti Ab Hamid
  • Žarko Ćojbašić
  • Nenad Pavlović

Abstract

We present a project management methodology designed for the selection of wind turbines wake effect most influential parameters, who need to run wind farm project for large energy conversion. Very frequently, the managers of these projects are not project management professionals, so they need guidance to have autonomy, using minimal time and documentation resources. Therefore, agile method is adapted to assist the project management. Wind energy poses challenges such as the reduction in the wind speed due to the wake effect by other turbines. If a turbine is within the area of turbulence caused by another turbine, or the area behind another turbine, the wind speed suffers a reduction and, therefore, there is a decrease in the production of electricity. In order to increase the efficiency of a wind farm, analyzing the parameters, which have influence on the wake effect, is one of the focal research areas. To maximize the power produced in a wind farm, it is important to determine and analyze the most influential factors on the wake effects or wake wind speeds since the effect has most influence on the produced power. This procedure is typically called variable selection, and it corresponds to finding a subset of the full set of recorded variables that exhibits good predictive abilities. In this study, architecture for modeling complex systems in function approximation and regression was used, based on using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Variable searching using the ANFIS network was performed to determine how the five parameters affect the wake wind speed. Our article answers the call for renewing the theoretical bases of wind farm project management in order to overcome the problems that stem from the application of methods based on decision-rationality norms, which bracket the complexity of action and interactions in projects. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Dalibor Petković & Siti Ab Hamid & Žarko Ćojbašić & Nenad Pavlović, 2014. "Adapting project management method and ANFIS strategy for variables selection and analyzing wind turbine wake effect," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 463-475, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:463-475
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1189-1
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